The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Are America’s Allies Finally Learning to Deal With Trump?
English Summary
A recent Foreign Affairs podcast highlights that U.S. allies are belatedly recognizing the fundamental shift in the U.S.-alliance dynamic under President Trump’s second term. The core argument is that allies initially failed to develop alternative strategies, evidenced by events like threats to abandon NATO, limited support for Japan against China, and a lack of consultation regarding the Iran conflict. Since then, however, European allies, particularly after Mark Carney’s Davos speech and the Greenland incident, have begun to acknowledge the diminished reliance on U.S. support and are starting to formulate more independent approaches. This shift reflects a growing understanding that the traditional U.S.-led order is no longer guaranteed, necessitating a re-evaluation of strategic partnerships.
中文摘要
最近《外交事務》播客指出，在川普總統第二任期間，美國盟友才開始意識到美國與盟國關係動態的根本性轉變。核心論點是，盟友最初未能制定替代策略，例如對北約的放棄威脅、對日本的反對中國有限的支持以及就伊朗衝突缺乏諮詢。然而，自那時以來，歐洲盟友，尤其是在馬克·卡尼在達沃斯發布的演講和格陵蘭事件之後，開始承認對美國支持的依賴程度降低，並開始構思更獨立的方法。這種轉變反映了越來越深刻的認識，即傳統以美國為中心的秩序不再有保障，這需要重新評估戰略夥伴關係。
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