The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The American Military’s Coming Marathon
English Summary
The Foreign Affairs article argues that the U.S. military is entering an era of protracted, marathon-like conflicts, rather than quick, decisive victories. Recent events, particularly the ongoing war with Iran, demonstrate that modern warfare is characterized by extended engagements, resource depletion, and a shift in power dynamics favoring adversaries with access to cheaper, mass-produced weaponry like drones. The U.S. military’s reliance on fixed assets and failure to adequately invest in defenses has resulted in significant losses. To adapt, the U.S. must prioritize building stockpiles of munitions, leveraging advanced technologies, hardening bases, and fostering closer alliances – a shift from rapid, targeted operations to sustained, resilient engagement.
中文摘要
《外交事務》的文章認為，美國軍事正步入一場持久戰、類似馬拉松式的時代，而非快速、決定性的勝利。最近的事件，尤其是持續的與伊朗的戰爭，表明現代戰爭的特徵是戰事持續時間延長、資源耗盡以及敵對勢力憑藉更廉價、大量生產的武器（如無人機）而改變力量格局。美國軍事對固定資產的依賴以及未能充分投資於防禦，導致了重大損失。為了適應，美國必須優先建立彈藥庫存、利用先進技術、加固基地以及加強同盟關係——從快速、有針對性的作戰轉向持久、具有韌性的參與。
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