The article argues that current market borrowing costs are rising independently of the Federal Reserve's policy stance, challenging the assumption that the Fed controls all rates. Evidence shows significant increases in key rates—such as 2-year Treasuries and mortgages—even while the effective federal funds rate remains steady. This divergence occurs because market rates reflect complex factors like inflation expectations, credit risk, and geopolitical volatility, which are outside the central bank's direct control. Policymakers should therefore recognize that sustainable rate moderation requires credible disinflation and disciplined government budgets, rather than relying solely on Fed intervention.
Ro Khanna’s “$25” Minimum Wage Bill
English Summary
CATO’s analysis of Ro Khanna’s proposed $25 minimum wage bill finds the proposal overly reliant on outdated comparisons and flawed reasoning. The bill, primarily pegged to two-thirds of national median hourly earnings, would likely result in a minimum wage closer to $16.34 in 2025 and $20.22 in 2031, significantly lower than Khanna’s $25 target. Evidence suggests that tying wages to productivity is misleading, as minimum wages primarily affect low-productivity sectors, and aggressive increases risk disemployment through layoffs or reduced hiring. The analysis highlights that the real value of the federal minimum wage has historically been much lower than Khanna’s claims, and that productivity gains don't automatically justify such a substantial wage increase.
中文摘要
CATO 對羅·卡納 (Ro Khanna) 提出的 25 美元最低工資法案的分析認為，該提案過於依賴過時的比較和邏輯上的缺陷。該法案主要基於全國中位時薪的兩 thirds，預計最低工資在 2025 年將接近 16.34 美元，在 2031 年將達到 20.22 美元，遠低於卡納的 25 美元目標。證據表明，將工資與生產力掛鉤是不準確的，因為最低工資主要影響低生產力部門，而過於激進的提高工資風險會通過裁員或減少招聘來導致失業。分析指出，聯邦最低工資的歷史價值遠低於卡納的聲稱，並且生產力增長並不能自動證明如此巨大的工資提高。
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