The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Study: More Parole Doesn't Mean More Safety — It May Mean More Prison
English Summary
A study of Illinois parole reform finds that reducing parole supervision for exiting prisoners lowered one-year reincarceration rates by 9–10 percentage points, driven almost entirely by fewer technical revocations rather than any change in criminal behavior. The research shows no evidence that reduced supervision increased crime; in fact, the absence of parole's ongoing threat of technical revocation appeared to offset any potential uptick. Policy simulations suggest that halving parole terms for low-to-medium-risk offenders could shrink average prison populations by roughly 3 percent with no harm to public safety, reinforcing the argument that existing parole systems inflate incarceration through procedural violations without meaningful safety benefits.
中文摘要
一項針對伊利諾州假釋改革的研究發現，減少對出獄囚犯的假釋監管使一年內再入獄率降低了9至10個百分點，此降幅幾乎完全源於技術性撤銷假釋案件的減少，而非犯罪行為的任何變化。研究顯示，並無證據表明減少監管會導致犯罪增加；事實上，取消假釋中持續存在的技術性撤銷威脅，似乎抵消了任何潛在的犯罪上升。政策模擬顯示，將中低風險犯罪者的假釋期限縮短一半，可在不損害公共安全的前提下，將平均監獄人口減少約百分之三，進一步印證了現行假釋制度透過程序性違規擴大監禁規模、卻未帶來實質安全效益的論點。
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