The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Free-Market Reforms Take Time to Pay Off
English Summary
The analysis argues that assessing free-market reforms too early risks misjudging their long-term impact, as initial years often show near-zero or modest declines in GDP per capita. Evidence from 30 countries suggests that while immediate effects are minimal, positive growth typically emerges and increases steadily after a period of approximately three to five years. Reforms related to trade and financial liberalization tend to yield quicker results than broader institutional restructuring or privatization. Policymakers should therefore anticipate short-term political and economic pressure following reforms but maintain confidence in the substantial long-run gains from market liberalization.
中文摘要
本分析指出，過早評估自由市場改革的成效有誤判其長期影響的風險，因為初期年份往往呈現國內生產總值（GDP）人均產出接近零或僅微幅下降。來自 30 個國家的證據顯示，儘管短期效果甚微，但積極增長通常會在經過約三至五年期後逐漸顯現並持續增加。與貿易和金融自由化相關的改革，其成效往往比更廣泛的制度重組或私有化帶來更快的成果。因此，政策制定者應預期改革初期會面臨政治和經濟壓力，但仍應對市場自由化帶來的可觀長期收益保持信心。
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