The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Lessons From 250 Years of U.S. Foreign Policy, With Robert Kagan
English Summary
Robert Kagan argues that U.S. foreign policy is frequently misunderstood as isolationist when it is historically defined by constant global engagement. He refutes the myth of American neutrality, asserting that history shows continuous expansion and interaction with great powers, driven not by external threats but by internal forces. These persistent outward pulls include economic necessity (as a trading nation), universalist ideological values, and the natural consequence of accumulating power. The key implication for policy is that strategic planning must recognize this deeply ingrained pattern of global involvement—rather than viewing it as an occasional deviation from domestic isolationism—to accurately predict future American actions.
中文摘要
羅伯特·卡根論述，美國的外交政策經常被誤解為孤立主義，但其歷史定義卻是持續的全球參與。他反駁了「美國中立」的神話，指出歷史證明美國與大國之間存在著持續的擴張和互動，而這些驅動力並非來自外部威脅，而是源於內在力量。這些持久的外向拉力包括經濟需求（作為一個貿易國家）、普遍主義的意識形態價值觀，以及累積權力的自然結果。對政策而言，關鍵的啟示是：戰略規劃必須認識到這種根深蒂固的全球介入模式——而非將其視為偶爾偏離國內孤立主義的例外情況——才能準確預測美國未來的行動。
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