The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Iranian Regime Could Fall
English Summary
The article posits that the Iranian regime is facing critical instability due to mounting internal dissent and external pressure. Key evidence includes thousands of citizens protesting the authoritarian government, leading to a rising death toll, while the regime responds with violence and internet blackouts. This internal crisis is compounded by the threat of military strikes from the U.S., which has vowed intervention if repression continues. The combination of widespread unrest and potential foreign military action suggests a highly volatile and deteriorating security situation in the region, signaling a high risk of regime collapse.
中文摘要
本文提出，伊朗政權正因內部異議日益高漲和外部壓力累積而面臨嚴峻的危機不穩。關鍵證據包括數千名公民抗議威權政府，導致死亡人數上升；而政權的回應則是暴力鎮壓和實施網路封鎖。這種內部危機，又因美國威脅軍事打擊而加劇，美國已承諾若鎮壓持續，將會介入。廣泛的社會動亂與潛在的外部軍事行動結合，顯示該地區的安全局勢極度動盪且持續惡化，預示著政權崩潰的高風險。
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