The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
North Korea as It Is
English Summary
The article argues that North Korea's nuclear ambitions are a deeply ingrained and persistent threat, recognized by the United States decades before the regime possessed advanced capabilities. Key evidence highlights that US officials observed NK's intent to acquire nuclear weapons as early as the 1990s, long before the country had sufficient fissile material or delivery systems. This historical perspective implies that any policy response must treat the threat as chronic and systemic, requiring sustained strategic deterrence rather than merely reacting to immediate military provocations.
中文摘要
本文論述北韓的核武野心是一個根深蒂固且持續的威脅，美國早在該政權具備先進能力之前數十年就已認識到這一點。關鍵證據指出，美國官員早在 1990 年代就觀察到北韓獲取核武的意圖，當時該國尚未擁有足夠的裂變物質或投送系統。從歷史視角來看，這意味著任何政策回應都必須將此威脅視為慢性且系統性的問題，需要採取持續的戰略威懾，而非僅僅對應即時的軍事挑釁。
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