ThinkTankWeekly

The Abiding Question of the Iranian Bomb

Foreign Affairs | 2026-03-05 | middle_east

Topics: Middle East, Nuclear, United States

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English Summary

The article analyzes a massive U.S.-led military campaign against Iran, which successfully targeted regime leadership, the IRGC, and key military assets like the navy and missile program. However, the strikes conspicuously omitted the Iranian nuclear program, highlighting it as the single, unresolved strategic threat. This suggests that while the military campaign severely degraded Iran's conventional military capacity, it failed to address the core proliferation issue. Consequently, policymakers must recognize that future strategy must pivot away from purely kinetic action and focus on containing or neutralizing the nuclear dimension of the Iranian threat.

中文摘要

本文分析了一場由美國主導的針對伊朗的大規模軍事行動,該行動成功地鎖定並攻擊了政權領導層、伊斯蘭革命衛隊(IRGC)以及海軍和導彈計畫等關鍵軍事資產。然而,此次打擊明顯忽略了伊朗的核計畫,突顯了其作為唯一未解決的戰略威脅。這表明,儘管軍事行動嚴重削弱了伊朗的傳統軍事能力,但卻未能解決其核心的擴散問題。因此,政策制定者必須認識到,未來的戰略必須從純粹的動能行動(kinetic action)轉移,轉而著重於遏制或化解伊朗核威脅的核層面。

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