The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Avoiding the Next Gulf War
English Summary
The escalating conflict, marked by Iranian missile and drone attacks on critical infrastructure in the Gulf, has severely impacted regional stability. Key evidence includes national energy companies in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar declaring force majeure due to damage to oil and gas facilities. This crisis is forcing Gulf Arab states to undergo a strategic 'reckoning,' compelling leaders to reassess existing regional relationships and dependencies. Policymakers must anticipate a shift in regional power dynamics and prepare for potential realignment among Gulf partners to mitigate further escalation.
中文摘要
升級的衝突，特別是伊朗對海灣地區關鍵基礎設施發動的飛彈和無人機攻擊，已嚴重衝擊了區域穩定。關鍵證據包括巴林、科威特和卡達的國家能源公司宣布因油氣設施受損而援引不可抗力條款。這場危機正迫使海灣阿拉伯國家進行一次戰略性的「重新評估」，促使領導人重新審視現有的區域關係和依賴性。政策制定者必須預期區域權力動態的轉變，並為海灣夥伴之間潛在的重組做好準備，以緩解進一步的升級。
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