The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
A Test of Wills in Iran
English Summary
Recent negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan failed to achieve an agreement, highlighting a significant strategic impasse. The core conflict stems from fundamentally opposed demands: the US seeks major concessions, including opening the Strait of Hormuz, restricting Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and limiting proxy support. Conversely, Iran demands comprehensive sanctions relief, the ability to monetize its control over the Strait, and lasting security assurances from the US. This persistent divergence suggests that immediate diplomatic de-escalation is unlikely, requiring a major shift in core national interests from both Washington and Tehran for any breakthrough to occur.
中文摘要
美國與伊朗近期在巴基斯坦進行的談判未能達成協議，凸顯了重大的戰略僵局。核心衝突源於雙方根本對立的要求：美國尋求重大讓步，包括開放霍爾木茲海峽、限制伊朗的核武和導彈計劃，以及限制其代理人支持。相反地，伊朗則要求全面解除制裁、獲得利用其在海峽控制權的經濟權，以及美國提供持久的安全保障。這種持續的分歧表明，短期內難以實現外交降級，任何突破都需要華盛頓和德黑蘭兩方在核心國家利益上進行重大轉變。
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