The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Iran War Comes to Iraq
English Summary
The escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is triggering a major regional conflagration, posing an immediate threat to Iraq. Historically, Iraq has managed to remain outside the line of fire despite strong ties to Tehran, primarily because both the Iraqi and Iranian governments successfully discouraged the involvement of aligned militias. However, the expansion of the conflict makes Iraq highly vulnerable to instability. Policy implications suggest that the region's status quo is unsustainable, necessitating urgent strategic planning to mitigate the risk of Iraq being drawn into the fighting.
中文摘要
美以與伊朗日益升級的衝突正引發重大的區域戰火，對伊拉克構成即時威脅。從歷史上看，儘管伊拉克與德黑蘭關係密切，但其一直成功地避免捲入戰火，主要歸因於伊拉克和伊朗政府成功阻止了附屬民兵的介入。然而，衝突的擴大使得伊拉克極易受到不穩定性的衝擊。政策層面分析指出，該地區的現狀是不可持續的，迫切需要進行戰略規劃，以減緩伊拉克捲入戰鬥的風險。
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