The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
US Tariff Refunds: Mostly Good Developments but Still a Long Way to Go
English Summary
While the US government has shown progress in processing the $166 billion refund of illegal tariffs through the CBP's CAPE system, the process remains highly bureaucratic and far from complete. Key evidence shows an increase in validated applications and authorized refunds, but the system is plagued by technical failures and administrative complexity, leading to significant delays. Critically, even current authorizations leave over $100 billion in unlawful tariff revenue unreturned to importers. Strategically, the complexity of the refund process disproportionately burdens small businesses, necessitating urgent government intervention to resolve systemic issues and ensure full restitution.
中文摘要
儘管美國政府透過海關及邊境保護局（CBP）的CAPE系統，在處理1,660億美元非法關稅退款方面展現了進展，但整個流程仍極度官僚化，且遠未完成。關鍵證據顯示，經驗證的申請和核准退款有所增加，但該系統仍受困於技術故障和行政複雜性，導致延誤嚴重。至關重要的是，即使是目前的核准額度，仍有超過1,000億美元的非法關稅收入尚未退還給進口商。從戰略角度來看，退款流程的複雜性不成比例地加重了小型企業的負擔，因此迫切需要政府介入，以解決系統性問題並確保全額賠償。
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