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Persistently Higher Treasury Yields Could Add Trillions to the Debt Over 10 Years

CATO | 2026-10-01 | economy

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English Summary

The article argues that persistently high Treasury yields pose a major fiscal vulnerability, threatening to add trillions to the national debt over the next decade. This risk stems from the massive accumulated public debt, which must be continuously refinanced at current high rates, far exceeding the baseline projections of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). If interest rates remain elevated, the cost of servicing maturing debt and funding deficits will balloon, creating significant interest-rate risk for the federal budget. Consequently, the analysis implies that substantial deficit reduction through spending cuts is necessary to manage the escalating cost of borrowing and stabilize the nation's fiscal outlook.

中文摘要

本文指出,持續高企的國債殖利率構成重大的財政脆弱性,預計在未來十年內將使國債累積額增加數兆元。此風險源於龐大的積累公共債務,這些債務必須持續以當前高利率進行再融資,其規模已遠超國會預算辦公室(CBO)的基線預測。若利率維持高位,償付到期債務和彌補赤字的成本將會急劇膨脹,為聯邦預算帶來顯著的利率風險。因此,分析推論指出,必須透過削減支出來大幅減少赤字,以管理不斷上升的借貸成本,並穩定國家的財政前景。

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