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An AI Tax Boom Could Curtail America’s Debt. But Not Solve It: Andrew Duehren in NYT

CATO | 2026-08-28 | economy

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English Summary

Andrew Duehren argues that while an AI boom could generate tax revenue, the root cause of America's fiscal deterioration is unsustainable spending growth in entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Because AI increases life expectancy and productivity, these open-ended entitlements are projected to grow faster than the economy, exacerbating the debt problem. Therefore, Duehren advises that policymakers should not focus on raising taxes to capture AI gains; instead, they must prioritize slowing the growth of unsustainable health care and social security spending to stabilize the fiscal outlook.

中文摘要

Andrew Duehren 認為,儘管人工智慧(AI)的蓬勃發展或許能創造稅收收入,但美國財政狀況惡化的根本原因,在於醫療保險、聯邦醫療補助計畫(Medicaid)、以及社會安全保障等福利項目支出持續增長且難以維持。由於 AI 提高了預期壽命和生產力,這些缺乏明確終止點的福利支出被預測將增速超過經濟成長速度,從而加劇了債務問題。因此,Duehren 建議政策制定者不應專注於提高稅率以捕捉 AI帶來的收益;相反地,他們必須優先減緩不可持續的醫療保健和社會安全支出增長,才能穩定財政前景。

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