The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
FIFA Promised a World Cup Economic Boom, But U.S. Stands May Be Emptier Than Usual
English Summary
The 2026 World Cup, hosted primarily in the United States, is unlikely to deliver FIFA's predicted $40 billion revenue windfall due to travel bans targeting fans from Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, and Senegal; record-high ticket prices (some exceeding $32,000); and visa-related safety concerns. Early indicators confirm significant shortfalls—80% of hotels in U.S. host cities report bookings below forecast, with 176,000 unsold tickets across the opening phase, indicating attendance will fall well short of the projected 10 million U.S. visitors. The U.S. tourism industry, already declining by 5.5% in foreign visitors last year, is unlikely to experience the anticipated economic recovery, with the American Hotel and Lodging Association describing the tournament as a 'non-event' relative to original expectations.
中文摘要
預計在美國舉行的 2026 年世界盃，由於針對來自海地、伊朗、象牙海岸和塞內加爾的球迷的旅行禁令、創紀錄的高票價（部分超過 32,000 美元），以及簽證相關的安全疑慮，恐難達成國際足聯預測的 400 億美元巨額收入。初步指標已證實出現顯著的短缺：美國主辦城市的酒店中，有 80% 的酒店預訂量低於預測，且開賽階段就有 176,000 張未售出門票，顯示出席人數將遠低於預計的 1,000 萬美國遊客。美國旅遊業去年外國遊客已出現 5.5% 的下降，因此，該產業不太可能體驗到預期的經濟復甦，美國酒店及住宿協會甚至將本次賽事形容為相對於原有預期而言的「非重大事件」。
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