The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Iran Deal Reopens the Strait. Much Remains to Be Done.
English Summary
The CFR assesses Trump's U.S.-Iran deal as a temporary 'memorandum of understanding' rather than a comprehensive peace, arguing that its terms primarily reflect Iran’s strategic gains and priorities. While the agreement temporarily lifts maritime blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, experts caution that critical issues—including full nuclear constraint, sanctions removal, and Israel's security concerns regarding proxies—remain unresolved or favor Tehran. The deal leaves regional powers, particularly Gulf states, exposed to potential economic coercion (such as transit fees) and forces a negotiation timetable that is inherently unstable. Consequently, the MOU represents a fragile ceasefire that fails to resolve deep-seated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
中文摘要
美國戰略與國際研究中心（CFR）評估，川普政府的美伊協議僅為一份臨時性的《諒解備忘錄》（MOU），而非全面的和平解決方案。該機構認為，協議條款主要反映了伊朗自身的戰略收益和優先考量。儘管該協定暫時解除霍爾木茲海峽的海上封鎖，但專家警告指出，諸如全面核武限制、解除制裁以及以色列關於代理人勢力的安全擔憂等關鍵問題仍未得到解決或偏袒德黑蘭的利益。此協議使區域大國，特別是海灣國家，容易面臨潛在的經濟脅迫（例如過境費），並設定了一個本質上不穩定的談判時間表。因此，該《諒解備忘錄》僅代表一個脆弱的停火狀態，無法化解中東地區根深蒂固的地緣政治緊張局勢。
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