The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Will the US–Iran ceasefire hold?
English Summary
The US-Iran ceasefire MOU represents an unequal draw, meaning neither side achieved a decisive victory but instead secured concessions that allow both parties to buy time. Both Washington and Tehran are leveraging their respective strengths—military superiority versus regional disruptive capacity—to drive negotiations. The resulting talks will be highly contentious, requiring simultaneous compromises on four fronts: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear restrictions, sanctions relief, and security guarantees. Strategically, Iran retains enough leverage regarding its regional influence to resist American demands, while Washington must manage deep-seated mistrust to finalize any agreement.
中文摘要
美伊停火諒解備忘錄（MOU）代表了一場不對等的平局，這意味著雙方均未取得決定性勝利，而是各自獲得了讓步空間，使雙方都能爭取時間。華盛頓和德黑蘭都在利用各自的優勢——軍事優勢與區域顛覆能力——來推動談判。隨後的會談將極具爭議性，要求在四個戰線上同時做出妥協：重新開放霍爾木茲海峽、核限制、制裁減緩以及安全保障。從戰略角度來看，伊朗在區域影響力方面仍保有足夠的籌碼來抵抗美國的要求；而華盛頓必須管理根深蒂固的不信任感才能最終敲定任何協議。
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