ThinkTankWeekly

The False Promise of U.S.-China Stability

Foreign Affairs | 2026-06-15 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, United States

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English Summary

The article argues that current U.S.-China relations, despite being labeled 'constructive strategic stability,' are merely a shallow and tenuous stalemate defined by mutual disruption. This uneasy quiescence stems from both governments lacking an affirmative vision for cooperation or deep engagement. Beijing views this geopolitical impasse as a significant victory, while the future trajectory of the relationship hinges on which side best utilizes this period of interregnum. Policymakers must anticipate continued strategic competition rather than genuine stability.

中文摘要

本文論點指出,當前美中關係儘管被標籤為「建設性戰略穩定」,實質上不過是一種由相互破壞所定義的膚淺且脆弱的僵局。這種不安定的平靜狀態源於兩國政府均缺乏積極的合作或深度參與願景。北京方面將此地緣政治困境視為重大勝利,而關係未來的發展軌跡則取決於雙方如何最佳利用這一「過渡期」。政策制定者必須預料到持續的戰略競爭,而非真正的穩定。

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