The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace
English Summary
Although Iran emerged from recent conflict strengthened by its control over the Strait of Hormuz—which it views as an 'economic nuclear weapon'—the article argues that attempting to monetize or restrict passage risks undermining its long-term stability. Evidence suggests that imposing fees on global shipping will accelerate international efforts to find alternative maritime routes, thereby diminishing the deterrent value of the strait for future adversaries. Consequently, Iran must resist the temptation to punish rivals and instead adopt a conciliatory approach; overplaying its hand could jeopardize peace and make sustainable regional normalization impossible.
中文摘要
儘管伊朗近期從衝突中崛起，並因其對霍爾木茲海峽的控制力而顯得強大——它將此視為一種「經濟核武器」——但本文認為，試圖將其貨運帶入商業化或限制通過權利，反而有損其長期穩定性。證據顯示，若對全球航運徵收費用，將會加速國際社會尋找替代海上路線的努力，從而削弱該海峽對於未來敵對勢力的威懾價值。因此，伊朗必須抵制懲罰競爭者的誘惑，轉而採取和解（或：緩和）的姿態；過度展示自身力量可能會危及和平，使區域可持續正常化變得不可能。
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