The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
NATO’s Permanent Crisis
English Summary
The article argues that the current perceived crisis within NATO is not unprecedented but follows a predictable pattern of tension and resolution. Historically, these crises stem from two perennial sources: disagreements over burden sharing (American complaints about European defense spending) and disputes regarding out-of-area military operations. Despite severe ruptures in the past, the alliance has always endured because members' shared security interests outweigh the cost of dissolution. Therefore, NATO is likely to survive, provided its member states continue to find common ground despite political disagreements.
中文摘要
本文論述，當前外界所認知的北約（NATO）危機並非史無前例，而是一種可預測的張力與解決模式。從歷史角度來看，這些危機源於兩個永恆不變的根源：一是關於負擔分攤的分歧（例如美國對歐洲國防開支的抱怨）；二是關於域外軍事行動的爭議。儘管過去經歷了嚴重的裂痕，但由於成員國共同的安全利益超過了解散的成本，該聯盟始終能夠維持。因此，只要其成員國能在政治分歧中持續尋求共識，北約極有可能得以存續。
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