The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Gulf’s China Problem
English Summary
The ongoing instability in the Gulf, exacerbated by the Iran war, is prompting Arab states to reassess their reliance on major external powers. While frustrated with the US for failing to guarantee regional safety after initiating conflict, these nations are also disillusioned with China's role. Beijing’s perceived 'wait-and-see' approach and reluctance to leverage influence over Tehran suggest that China cannot be counted on as a reliable security partner in times of crisis. Consequently, Gulf states are accelerating their push for strategic autonomy, reducing dependence on traditional great power guarantees.
中文摘要
海灣地區持續的不穩定局勢，尤其因伊朗戰爭的影響加劇，正促使阿拉伯國家重新評估其對主要外部大國的依賴程度。這些國家一方面對美國在發起衝突後未能確保區域安全感到失望；另一方面，他們也對中國的角色產生了幻滅感。北京被認為採取了『觀望』態度，且不願利用影響力來處理德黑蘭問題，這暗示著中國在危機時期無法作為可靠的安全夥伴。因此，海灣國家正在加速推動實現戰略自主性，減少對傳統大國擔保的依賴。
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