The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Why Iran Will Escalate
English Summary
The article critiques the widespread confidence among foreign policy establishments regarding the ability to manage the fallout from a potential U.S. attack on Iran. It argues that this overconfidence is rooted in a misunderstanding of political norms and the unpredictable nature of key decision-makers. The text provides evidence of a pattern where a specific political figure has historically disregarded established foreign policy advice and norms, such as the move of the American embassy to Jerusalem, without facing apparent repercussions. Consequently, policymakers should be cautious, as standard strategic planning may fail to account for the volatile and norm-breaking actions of powerful political actors.
中文摘要
本文批判了外國政策界普遍對於管理潛在美國攻擊伊朗後可能引發的餘波所抱持的過度自信。文章認為，這種過度自信源於對政治規範的誤解，以及對關鍵決策者不可預測性的低估。文本提供了證據，指出某位政治人物在歷史上曾無視既定的外交政策建議和規範（例如美國大使館遷至耶路撒冷），卻未遭受明顯的後果。因此，政策制定者應保持謹慎，因為標準的戰略規劃可能無法預料到強大政治行為者那種變動不居且違背規範的行動。
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