The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Iranian Regime’s Existential Crisis—and What Might Come After Khamenei
English Summary
The article posits that the Iranian regime is facing an existential crisis, accelerated by recent military escalations. Key evidence cited includes a joint U.S.-Israeli assault on Iranian military and leadership targets, followed by significant retaliatory missile and drone exchanges. The authors argue that the ultimate objective of these actions is regime toppling, suggesting that the region is moving toward internal instability and potential state collapse. Policymakers must anticipate a volatile shift in regional power dynamics and prepare for a post-Khamenei transition period.
中文摘要
本文提出，伊朗政權正面臨一場存亡危機，而近期軍事升級加速了這一趨勢。文章指出，關鍵證據包括美以聯手對伊朗軍事和領導目標發動的打擊，隨後伴隨著大規模的報復式飛彈和無人機交換。作者認為，這些行動的最終目標是推翻政權，暗示該地區正朝向內部不穩定和潛在國家崩潰邁進。政策制定者必須預期區域權力格局將出現動盪轉變，並為「汗納門內」過渡期做好準備。
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