ThinkTankWeekly

The Iran War’s Threat to Turkey

Foreign Affairs | 2026-04-27 | middle_east

Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, United States

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English Summary

While Turkey seeks to maintain neutrality during the Iran conflict to prevent regional chaos and protect its borders, the article argues that this passive stance is insufficient to ensure its security. Turkey's geopolitical vulnerability is highlighted by external pressures, particularly Israel's expanding regional dominance, which risks encircling Ankara. Therefore, Turkey must move beyond mere non-involvement and adopt a proactive diplomatic strategy. Its primary goal should be to negotiate a durable, constrained settlement for Iran—similar to the JCPOA—that limits its nuclear and missile programs without causing state collapse, thereby stabilizing the region and preserving Turkey's strategic influence.

中文摘要

儘管土耳其試圖在伊朗衝突中維持中立,以避免區域混亂並保護其邊界,但本文認為這種消極立場不足以確保其安全。土耳其的地緣政治脆弱性受到外部壓力凸顯,特別是以色列不斷擴大的區域主導地位,這有使土耳其陷入包圍的風險。因此,土耳其必須超越單純的不介入,採取積極的外交策略。其主要目標應是為伊朗協商一個持久且受限的解決方案——類似於《聯合全面行動計劃》(JCPOA)——旨在限制其核武和導彈計畫,同時避免國家崩潰,從而穩定區域局勢並維護土耳其的戰略影響力。

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