The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Effects of the Measure ULA (United to House LA) Transfer Tax on Economic Development and Municipal Finances in Los Angeles
English Summary
The RAND report analyzes Measure ULA, a real estate transfer tax intended to fund affordable housing in Los Angeles, concluding that the tax has significantly depressed the local real estate market and dampened commercial development. Key evidence shows that ULA has reduced high-value transactions by 31% and decreased housing production, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in forgone municipal revenue and job losses. The analysis recommends a targeted tax reform—such as exempting newer properties and lowering rates on older projects—which would preserve current funding levels while simultaneously increasing municipal revenue by over $800 million, generating thousands of new housing units, and stimulating job growth.
中文摘要
這份RAND報告分析了「ULA措施」（Measure ULA），這是一項旨在為洛杉磯提供可負擔住房的房地產轉讓稅。報告結論指出，該稅收已嚴重壓抑了當地房地產市場，並抑制了商業開發。關鍵證據顯示，ULA已導致高價值交易量下降了31%，並減少了住房產出，進而造成數億美元的市政收入損失和失業。分析建議進行有針對性的稅制改革——例如豁免新建物業和降低舊有項目的稅率——此舉可以在維持現有資金水平的同時，增加超過8億美元的市政收入，從而創造數千個新的住房單元，並刺激就業增長。
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