The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The fallout in Southeast Asia
English Summary
The fallout from the Iran war significantly erodes international law and increases regional vulnerability to maritime chokepoint weaponization across Southeast Asia. This instability, compounded by global tariffs, is rapidly diminishing confidence in U.S. leadership among local elites, who are increasingly weighing China's economic influence against perceived American unreliability. For policy, Washington must urgently realign its actions with international law and bolster maritime domain awareness in critical straits like Malacca. Furthermore, the U.S. must rebuild trust by demonstrating greater consideration for allied concerns and mitigating economic costs to prevent a strategic shift toward Beijing.
中文摘要
伊朗戰事帶來的後果嚴重侵蝕了國際法，並加劇了東南亞地區在海上關鍵要道（maritime chokepoint）面臨的武器化風險。這種不穩定性，加上全球關稅的衝擊，正迅速削弱當地精英對美國領導力的信心。這些精英越來越傾向權衡中國的經濟影響力與感知到的美國不可靠性。從政策層面來看，華盛頓必須緊急將其行動重新校準至符合國際法，並加強對馬六甲等關鍵海峽的海域認知能力（maritime domain awareness）。此外，美國必須透過更體恤盟友關切和減輕經濟成本來重建信任，以避免戰略重心轉向北京。
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