The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
OPEC and the UAE Exit
English Summary
The article argues that OPEC's ability to control oil prices through production quotas is largely symbolic, citing that geological and technical realities prevent rapid, precise adjustments to oil output. Evidence suggests that quotas are frequently ignored, with the UAE exceeding its limits and its production volatility statistically mirroring that of the decentralized US market. Therefore, OPEC functions less as an economic cartel and more as a political club, using the appearance of control to rally against the West. The UAE's exit signals that geopolitical differences with regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia, now outweigh the strategic importance of anti-Western solidarity.
中文摘要
本文論述，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）透過生產配額控制油價的能力，在很大程度上只是象徵性的。文章援引地質和技術現實，指出這些現實阻礙了石油產量快速、精準的調整。證據顯示，配額經常被無視，例如阿聯酋（UAE）超過其配額限制，其產量波動性在統計上與去中心化的美國市場呈現相似性。因此，OPEC的功能更接近於一個政治俱樂部，而非經濟卡特爾，它利用「控制的表象」來集結反西方力量。阿聯酋的退出表明，與沙特阿拉伯等區域競爭對手之間的地緣政治差異，現在已經超越了反西方團結的戰略重要性。
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