The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The UN's Drug Report Makes an Unintended Case Against Prohibition
English Summary
The UNODC's 2026 World Drug Report suggests that global illicit drug markets are not shrinking due to enforcement, but rather adapting, expanding, and becoming more resilient. Key evidence points to traffickers shifting away from plant-based drugs toward novel synthetic opioids (NPS) because they are easier to manufacture and conceal. The report's findings reinforce the 'Iron Law of Prohibition,' indicating that intense enforcement merely changes incentives, leading to an unprecedented spike in potent, unpredictable, and dangerous substances. Strategically, this implies that prohibition has failed to defeat demand; instead, it has reshaped the market into a more globalized and technologically sophisticated challenge.
中文摘要
聯合國鴉片及犯罪署（UNODC）的《2026年世界毒品報告》指出，全球非法毒品市場並非因為執法取締而萎縮，而是正在適應、擴張，並且變得更具韌性。關鍵證據顯示，販毒者正從植物基毒品轉向新型合成鴉片類藥物（NPS），因為它們更容易製造和隱藏。報告的發現強化了「禁令鐵律」，表明嚴密的執法僅改變了誘因，導致強效、不可預測且危險物質前所未有的激增。從戰略角度來看，這意味著禁令未能遏制需求；相反地，它已將市場重塑為一個更全球化、更具技術複雜性的挑戰。
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