The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Do Immigration Quotas Benefit Native-Born Workers?
English Summary
Analysis of historical immigration quotas (1921, 1924) suggests that these restrictions negatively impacted the intergenerational mobility and wages of US-born white men, particularly in areas with high immigrant exposure. Conversely, the quotas may have modestly improved occupational prospects for Black men by reducing competition for lower-skilled urban jobs. The research suggests that immigrants generally complement native workers by increasing productivity, noting that the negative mobility effects were significantly larger for white men in counties reliant on non-English-speaking immigrant labor. Policymakers should consider the labor market dynamics and the complementary role of immigration when evaluating quota policies.
中文摘要
分析歷史上的移民配額（1921年、1924年）顯示，這些限制對美國出生的白人男性，特別是在移民接觸度高的地區，產生了負面的跨代流動性和工資影響。相反地，這些配額可能透過減少低技能的城市工作競爭，對黑人男性的職業前景帶來了溫和的改善。研究指出，移民普遍透過提高生產力來互補本土勞工，並特別提到，對於依賴非英語系移民勞動力的縣市而言，白人男性面臨的負面流動性影響顯著更大。政策制定者在評估配額政策時，應考慮勞動力市場的動態，以及移民所扮演的互補角色。
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