The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The AI Panic Is Producing Terrible Tax Ideas
English Summary
The article argues that calls for new taxes on AI or computing power are based on flawed economic premises, specifically the false narrative of labor losing to capital. Empirical evidence contradicts this panic, showing that technology generally complements work by enhancing productivity rather than simply replacing it. Furthermore, implementing a compute tax would be economically damaging because taxing intermediate inputs raises costs across all final goods and slows down the necessary investment required for wage growth. Policymakers should therefore avoid distorting capital markets with new taxes and instead focus on improving existing tax structures to ensure supernormal returns are fully captured.
中文摘要
本文論證，呼籲對人工智慧或運算能力徵收新稅的基礎是錯誤的經濟前提，特別是基於「勞動敗給資本」的虛假敘事。實證證據反駁了這種恐慌，顯示技術通常透過提升生產力來輔助工作，而非單純地取代工作。此外，實施運算稅在經濟上將產生損害，因為對中間投入品課稅會提高所有最終商品的成本，並減緩 wage growth 所必需的投資。因此，政策制定者應避免用新稅扭曲資本市場，而應專注於改善現有的稅制結構，以確保超額回報（supernormal returns）能夠得到充分捕捉。
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