The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Trump’s Personal Investments and Government by Deal
English Summary
The article argues that the Trump administration's tendency to treat policymaking as a series of personalized 'deals'—such as trading export permissions or government stakes for revenue—undermines predictable market function. Key evidence includes the president's personal investments in major companies like Nvidia, Intel, and Boeing, which are directly affected by the administration's discretionary policies. The core finding is that this 'government-by-deal' approach forces businesses to focus on political favor rather than sound business judgment. Therefore, the policy implication is that the executive branch must be restricted from wielding such broad, discretionary power over individual companies and sectors, favoring instead a neutral, predictable regulatory framework.
中文摘要
本文論述川普政府將政策制定視為一系列個人化的「交易」——例如以貿易出口許可或政府股權換取收入——的做法，損害了市場的預測性功能。關鍵證據包括總統在輝達（Nvidia）、英特爾（Intel）和波音（Boeing）等主要公司進行的個人投資，這些投資直接受到政府自由裁量政策的影響。核心發現是，這種「以交易為政府」的模式迫使企業將精力放在爭取政治青睞，而非依循穩健的商業判斷。因此，政策意涵是，行政部門必須限制行使如此廣泛的、針對個別公司和產業的酌情權力，而應轉向建立一個中立、可預測的監管框架。
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