The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Illusion of Limited War: Trump’s Misguided Approach to Iran
English Summary
The article argues that the Trump administration’s reliance on "limited" military force against Iran is a strategic illusion that risks initiating an open-ended "forever war." It highlights that while airpower and covert actions minimize immediate American casualties, they frequently result in severe second-order effects like regional instability, refugee crises, and radicalization, as seen in past interventions in Libya and Syria. Ultimately, the author suggests that the administration should prioritize a diplomatic agreement with Tehran to avoid the very type of protracted conflict the president pledged to avoid.
中文摘要
本文認為，川普政府對伊朗依賴「有限」軍事力量的做法是一種戰略幻象，存在引發無止盡「長久戰爭」的風險。文中指出，雖然空軍力量和秘密行動能極小化美國的即時傷亡，但往往會導致嚴重的次生影響，如區域動盪、難民危機及激進化，正如過去在利比亞和敘利亞的干預行動所見。最終，作者建議政府應優先與德黑蘭達成外交協議，以避免總統曾承諾避開的那種長期衝突。
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