ThinkTankWeekly

The Illusion of Limited War: Trump’s Misguided Approach to Iran

CATO | 2026-02-22 | diplomacy

Topics: Middle East, Nuclear, United States

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English Summary

The article argues that the Trump administration’s reliance on "limited" military force against Iran is a strategic illusion that risks initiating an open-ended "forever war." It highlights that while airpower and covert actions minimize immediate American casualties, they frequently result in severe second-order effects like regional instability, refugee crises, and radicalization, as seen in past interventions in Libya and Syria. Ultimately, the author suggests that the administration should prioritize a diplomatic agreement with Tehran to avoid the very type of protracted conflict the president pledged to avoid.

中文摘要

本文認為,川普政府對伊朗依賴「有限」軍事力量的做法是一種戰略幻象,存在引發無止盡「長久戰爭」的風險。文中指出,雖然空軍力量和秘密行動能極小化美國的即時傷亡,但往往會導致嚴重的次生影響,如區域動盪、難民危機及激進化,正如過去在利比亞和敘利亞的干預行動所見。最終,作者建議政府應優先與德黑蘭達成外交協議,以避免總統曾承諾避開的那種長期衝突。

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