The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
After the Rupture: The Reordering of the World
English Summary
The consensus among global policy experts is that the post-WWII rules-based international order is experiencing structural fatigue, necessitating a reordering of global governance. Key evidence points to the limitations of traditional multilateral institutions in addressing modern, complex challenges like climate change and AI, leading states to prioritize outcomes over mere processes. Consequently, the strategic implication is a shift away from universal institutions toward 'coalitions of the willing' or open plurilateralism. Future international cooperation will therefore be built on flexible alliances that combine shared values with specific, tangible national interests, allowing middle powers greater autonomy in global decision-making.
中文摘要
全球政策專家普遍認為，戰後建立的基於規則的國際秩序正經歷結構性疲勞，亟需重塑全球治理體系。關鍵證據指出，傳統多邊機構在應對氣候變遷和人工智慧等現代複雜挑戰方面存在局限性，導致各國傾向於將結果置於程序之上。因此，戰略意涵是，國際合作正從普遍性的機構轉向「意願聯盟」或開放的多邊主義。未來國際合作將建立在靈活的聯盟基礎上，結合共同價值與具體的國家利益，使中等國家在全球決策中擁有更大的自主權。
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