The White House (via OMB) strongly protests Congressional efforts within the FY 2027 NDAA to prohibit the purchase of warships from foreign shipyards. The Administration argues that these restrictions undermine national security by limiting flexibility and hindering its strategy of leveraging allied yards, such as in the 'Finland model,' to drive investment into U.S. shipbuilding capacity. This signals a significant policy shift toward integrating international partners into advanced naval construction, suggesting the Pentagon is prepared to bypass traditional domestic build requirements for future combat vessels.
Coercing Iran: Why Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Has a Short Fuse
English Summary
The article argues that the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a high-risk gamble unlikely to succeed in coercing Iran into accepting U.S. terms. While the blockade aims to trigger an economic collapse, the analysis notes that Iran has demonstrated resilience, and the global energy market remains highly vulnerable to escalation. Furthermore, the U.S. faces significant domestic political backlash and the risk of a direct military confrontation with Iran or China. Consequently, the authors suggest that the potential for catastrophic global economic fallout outweighs the strategic benefits, making the current policy unsustainable.
中文摘要
本文論述美國對霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖行動是一場高風險的賭注，難以成功迫使伊朗接受美國的條件。儘管該封鎖旨在引發經濟崩潰，但分析指出伊朗展現了韌性，且全球能源市場極易受到升級衝突的衝擊。此外，美國國內面臨巨大的政治反彈，並存在與伊朗或中國發生直接軍事衝突的風險。因此，作者們認為，潛在的災難性全球經濟後果超過了戰略利益，使得當前政策難以持續。
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