The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
What is necessary to return Venezuela to stable economic growth and democracy after the US operation?
English Summary
Chatham House convenes experts to assess the path forward for Venezuela following the January 2026 US operation, arguing that while Washington has outlined a three-stage process toward stability, concrete plans for credible elections, rule of law, and economic recovery remain inadequate. The discussion draws on two recent Chatham House policy papers that identify specific benchmarks and priorities for democratic elections and legal institutional reform under the interim government. The implications are significant for US and multilateral strategy: sustaining post-intervention gains will require coordinated engagement among the interim Venezuelan government, international organizations, investors, and civil society to avoid a governance vacuum and ensure lasting democratic transition.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所召集專家評估2026年1月美國軍事行動後委內瑞拉的前進道路，指出儘管華盛頓已勾勒出邁向穩定的三階段進程，但在可信選舉、法治建設及經濟復甦方面的具體計畫仍顯不足。討論援引查塔姆研究所近期發表的兩篇政策報告，針對臨時政府下的民主選舉與法律制度改革提出具體基準與優先事項。此議題對美國及多邊戰略具有重大意涵：維繫干預後的成果將需要臨時委內瑞拉政府、國際組織、投資者及公民社會之間的協調合作，以避免治理真空並確保持久的民主轉型。
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