The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Turkey’s Quiet Realignment
English Summary
The article examines Turkey's gradual strategic repositioning away from its traditional Western alignment, arguing that unlike past episodes of friction—such as the 2003 Iraq access vote, the 2010 Iran sanctions dissent, and the 2017 S-400 purchase—the current shift represents a more structural realignment rather than a transactional dispute. Ankara is diversifying its security and economic partnerships while maintaining its NATO membership, leveraging its geographic position to extract concessions from multiple power centers. The analysis suggests Western policymakers should treat Turkey less as an ally drifting off course and more as an increasingly autonomous actor pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy, with significant implications for NATO cohesion, Middle East diplomacy, and energy corridor politics.
中文摘要
本文探討土耳其逐步偏離其傳統西方陣營的戰略重新定位。文章指出，有別於過往的摩擦事件——如2003年拒絕美軍借道入侵伊拉克、2010年在伊朗制裁問題上的異議，以及2017年採購S-400防空系統——當前的轉變代表的是一種更具結構性的重新調整，而非單純的交易性爭端。安卡拉在維持北約成員國身份的同時，積極拓展其安全與經濟夥伴關係的多元化，並利用其地緣戰略位置向多個權力中心爭取讓步。分析認為，西方決策者應將土耳其視為一個日益自主、奉行多向量外交政策的行為者，而非一個偏離航道的盟友。此一趨勢對北約凝聚力、中東外交以及能源走廊政治均具有深遠影響。
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