The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Iran Cease-Fire Was Doomed to Fail
English Summary
The article argues that standalone, transactional diplomatic bargains—such as the recent US-Iran cease-fire—are inherently doomed to fail because they postpone resolution rather than addressing the root causes of conflict. The failure stems from a global shift away from structured multilateralism toward narrow, opportunistic deals, which allows warring parties to merely pause fighting while preparing for the next escalation. This trend increases regional instability by leaving fundamental disputes unresolved (e.g., the core security dilemma between Iran and the West). Policymakers must therefore recognize that relying on personal access or quick fixes is insufficient; sustained conflict resolution requires robust institutional frameworks and comprehensive political compromise.
中文摘要
本文論點指出，孤立且具交易性質的外交協議——例如近期美伊停火協議——本質上注定失敗，因為它們只是延遲了解決問題，而非處理衝突的根本原因。這種失敗源於全球正從結構化的多邊主義轉向狹隘、機會主義式的協商模式，這使得各方戰事僅能暫歇，卻未為下一次升級做好準備。此趨勢透過讓基本爭議（例如伊朗與西方之間的核心安全困境）懸而未決，加劇了區域不穩定性。因此，政策制定者必須認識到，單靠個人關係或快速修補的方案是遠遠不夠的；持續的衝突解決需要穩健的制度框架和全面的政治妥協。
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