The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Europe Still Needs China
English Summary
The article argues that despite increasing geopolitical tensions and calls for decoupling, Europe remains fundamentally reliant on China for critical economic stability and supply chain continuity. This deep interdependence, particularly in key manufacturing and raw material sectors, makes a complete strategic withdrawal economically unfeasible and potentially destabilizing for the continent. Consequently, the analysis suggests that Europe must abandon a purely confrontational stance, instead adopting a nuanced 'de-risking' strategy. This approach requires balancing strategic competition with pragmatic economic cooperation to secure its global position without sacrificing vital market access.
中文摘要
本文論述，儘管地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，且外界呼籲「脫鉤」（decoupling），歐洲卻在關鍵經濟穩定和供應鏈連續性方面，本質上仍高度依賴中國。這種深度相互依賴，特別是在關鍵製造和原材料領域，使得歐洲大陸從戰略上完全撤離在經濟上不可行，且可能造成不穩定。因此，本分析建議歐洲必須放棄純粹的對抗姿態，轉而採取一種審慎的「去風險化」（de-risking）策略。此方法要求在確保全球地位的同時，平衡戰略競爭與務實的經濟合作，以避免犧牲關鍵市場准入。
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