The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
The two blind spots of megaproject appraisal
English Summary
The article argues that megaproject appraisal consistently fails due to two blind spots: treating politics merely as a constraint rather than a measurable variable, and analyzing risks statically rather than dynamically. Evidence from 500 projects shows that political timing is critical, with projects announced before completing pre-investment studies experiencing significantly higher cost overruns and delays. Policymakers must therefore shift to a public policy-based perspective, incorporating dynamic risk modeling and AI-assisted tools. This approach allows decision-makers to assess how interconnected political and technical risks migrate and propagate, enabling timely interventions when decisions are still reversible.
中文摘要
本文論證，大型專案的評估經常因兩個盲點而失敗：一是將政治僅視為限制而非可量化變數；二是將風險進行靜態分析而非動態分析。根據對500個專案的證據顯示，政治時機至關重要，那些在完成前期投資研究前宣布的專案，其成本超支和延遲的發生機率顯著更高。因此，政策制定者必須轉向以公共政策為基礎的視角，納入動態風險模型和AI輔助工具。這種方法能讓決策者評估相互關聯的政治和技術風險如何遷移與傳播，從而在決策仍具可逆性時進行及時干預。
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