The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
5 ways to make formalization worth it for Africa’s entrepreneurs
English Summary
The Brookings report argues that simply encouraging informal businesses to register is insufficient; formalization must be made economically valuable to be adopted. Evidence shows that legal status alone does not guarantee increased profits, suggesting that entrepreneurs remain informal due to systemic constraints like poor infrastructure and limited capital access. Policy must therefore shift from 'how to encourage registration' to 'what benefits will make formalization desirable.' The recommended strategy is to create a 'bundle' of incentives, including guaranteed access to credit, reliable infrastructure, social protection, legal certainty, and guaranteed market access through public procurement, making formal status a productive gateway for growth.
中文摘要
布魯金斯報告指出，僅僅鼓勵非正式企業進行登記是不足夠的；形式化必須具備經濟價值才能被實行。證據顯示，單純的法律地位無法保證利潤的增加，這暗示了企業家之所以維持非正式狀態，是因為面臨基礎設施落後和資本獲取受限等系統性制約。因此，政策必須從「如何鼓勵登記」轉向「哪些利益能使形式化變得可取」。建議的策略是建立一套「激勵捆綁包」，內容涵蓋保證信貸獲取、可靠基礎設施、社會保障、法律確定性，以及透過公共採購保證的市場准入，使正式地位成為一個促進經濟成長的生產性門徑。
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