The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Three state elections throw German politics into disarray
English Summary
Recent state elections in Germany reveal a profound shift away from its stable, centrist political culture, ushering in an era of polarization and fragmentation. Key evidence includes the significant gains made by the far-right AfD and the massive loss of support for traditional centrist parties like the CDU, while coalition formation remains highly precarious due to deep ideological divides. For policy, this instability forces the centrist government to urgently deliver difficult reforms—such as pension overhauls—to contain the extremist fringes and maintain political cohesion. The ongoing internal struggle suggests Germany's political stability is challenged, potentially impacting its reliability as a key European power.
中文摘要
德國近期舉行的大選顯示，其穩定的中間派政治文化正經歷深刻轉變，迎來了極化與碎片化的時代。關鍵證據包括極右翼德國黨盟（AfD）取得顯著支持，以及傳統中間派政黨（如CDU）遭受大規模支持流失；同時，由於深層的意識形態分歧，聯盟的組建仍極不穩定。就政策而言，這種不穩定性迫使中間派政府必須緊急推動艱難的改革——例如養老金改革——以遏制極端邊緣勢力並維持政治凝聚力。持續的內部鬥爭表明德國的政治穩定性正受到挑戰，這可能影響其作為關鍵歐洲大國的可靠性。
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