The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Doomslayers Are Shaping America’s Energy Policy
English Summary
The article argues that centuries of pessimistic predictions about resource depletion have been repeatedly disproven by human innovation and adaptation. Drawing on economist Julian Simon's philosophy that human ingenuity is the 'ultimate resource,' the authors praise Secretary of Energy Chris Wright for adopting an optimistic approach to energy abundance rather than scarcity-based policies. They cite the shale revolution and recent policy shifts—such as energy superabundance workshops and Operation Gigawatt—as evidence that the US government is embracing innovation-driven energy strategy. The implication is that private sector-led, decentralized innovation rather than government planning drives progress, and meeting global energy demands requires policy frameworks encouraging experimentation and risk-taking.
中文摘要
本文論述了數世紀以來，關於資源枯竭的悲觀預測，皆已被人類的創新與適應能力所不斷證偽。文章援引了經濟學家朱利安·西蒙（Julian Simon）的理念，即人類的創造力是「終極資源」，並讚揚能源部長克里斯·賴特（Chris Wright）採取了樂觀的能源豐裕觀點，而非基於稀缺性的政策思維。作者們以頁岩革命（shale revolution）和近期政策轉變——例如能源超級豐裕工作坊（energy superabundance workshops）和「吉瓦特行動」（Operation Gigawatt）——為例證，指出美國政府正積極擁抱由創新驅動的能源戰略。其核心啟示是，推動進步的動力源於私營部門主導的、去中心化的創新，而非政府的規劃。因此，要滿足全球能源需求，必須建立鼓勵實驗和承擔風險的政策框架。
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