The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
After a Year of High Tariffs, the US Goods Trade Deficit Has Barely Budged
English Summary
After over a year of historically high tariffs, the US goods trade deficit remains largely unchanged, contradicting the Trump administration's tariff strategy. When adjusted for inflation, April 2026 data shows the deficit at roughly pre-tariff levels (2022–24), despite anomalies like petroleum exports from the Iran war and substantial non-monetary gold exports that temporarily reduce nominal figures. Most economists argue that trade deficits are driven by macroeconomic forces beyond tariffs' reach, and recent data appear to vindicate this view. The analysis suggests tariffs are an ineffective tool for addressing trade imbalances, undermining a core rationale of the administration's trade policy.
中文摘要
經過一年多的創紀錄關稅後，美國商品貿易赤字基本保持不變，與川普政府的關稅戰略相矛盾。經通脹調整後，2026年4月的數據顯示赤字大約回到關稅前水平（2022–24年），儘管存在伊朗戰爭石油出口和大量非貨幣黃金出口等異常情況，這些暫時減少了名義上的數字。大多數經濟學家認為，貿易赤字是由關稅無法達到的宏觀經濟力量推動的，最近的數據似乎證實了這一觀點。該分析表明，關稅是解決貿易失衡的無效工具，削弱了該政府貿易政策的核心理由。
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