The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The New Trump Tariffs Are Also Unlawful
English Summary
The Trump administration's invocation of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose 10 percent tariffs is legally suspect because it incorrectly substitutes 'trade deficits' for the statute's requirement of 'balance-of-payments' problems. Economists and the administration's own prior legal filings confirm these concepts are distinct, especially since the U.S. floating exchange rate system currently allows for easy financing of trade imbalances without a payments crisis. Ultimately, the administration is likely using this authority as a 150-day temporary bridge to sustain protectionist policies while bypassing Congressional approval and preparing alternative legal justifications.
中文摘要
川普政府援引《1974年貿易法》第122條徵收10%關稅之舉在法律上存有爭議，主因在於其錯誤地將該條款所要求的「國際收支」問題以「貿易赤字」代之。經濟學家與政府先前的法律呈件均確認兩者概念有別，尤其美國現行的浮動匯率制度能確保在不觸發收支危機的情況下，有效融通貿易失衡。本質上，該政府極可能將此權限視作150天的臨時過渡手段，旨在繞過國會審核並籌備其他法律依據的同時，持續推行其保護主義政策。
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