The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Sinking of the Lusitania
English Summary
The sinking of the Lusitania in 1915, a German U-boat attack resulting in the deaths of nearly 1,200 people, including 128 Americans, failed to sway public opinion toward U.S. entry into World War I. The attack occurred due to Germany’s establishment of a war zone in the North Sea and the Lusitania’s speed and luxurious design, which led the captain to underestimate the threat of submarine warfare. Public outrage was fueled by the Bryce Report’s accusations of German atrocities in Belgium and divisions within the Wilson administration, with some advisors advocating for a confrontation while others prioritized neutrality. Ultimately, American isolationist sentiment, rooted in historical precedents and ethnic considerations, prevented a shift in policy.
中文摘要
1915年卢西塔尼亚号沉没事件，由德國U型潛艇發生的攻擊導致近1200人喪生，其中包括128名美國人。儘管此事件未能促使公眾輿論轉向美國參戰一戰，事件發生是因為德國在北海設立戰區，且盧西塔尼亚号的航速和豪華設計使得船長低估了潛艇戰鬥的威脅。公眾憤慨並受到布雷斯報告指責德國在比利時的暴行以及威爾遜政府內部的分歧所激發，其中一些顧問主張應對抗，而另一些顧問則優先考慮保持中立。最終，根植於歷史先例和族裔考量的美國孤立主義情緒阻止了政策的轉變。
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