The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How the Iran War Confirmed, Contradicted, and Complicated U.S. Policy
English Summary
The Iran War has exposed a critical gap between U.S. analytical foresight and actual policy execution, forcing a reassessment of foundational assumptions. Key evidence demonstrates that Iran has invalidated previous assumptions by broadening its attacks across all Gulf nations and gaining significant economic leverage through its control of the Strait of Hormuz. While the regime's resilience to decapitation remains accurate, the conflict shows Iran is abandoning plausible deniability for more overt, direct attacks. Consequently, U.S. policy must urgently update its strategic framework to account for Iran's increased regional aggression and its sustained ability to maintain power despite external pressure.
中文摘要
伊朗戰爭暴露了美國分析預見能力與實際政策執行之間存在關鍵鴻溝，迫使我們重新評估既有的基礎假設。關鍵證據顯示，伊朗透過將其攻擊範圍擴展至所有海灣國家，並控制霍爾木茲海峽獲得顯著經濟槓桿，已使先前假設失效。雖然該政權對「 decapitation」（清除領導層）的韌性評估仍屬準確，但衝突顯示伊朗正在放棄可否認性，轉向更公開、更直接的攻擊。因此，美國政策必須緊急更新其戰略框架，以應對伊朗日益增加的區域侵略性，以及其在外部壓力下持續維持實力的能力。
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