The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Coming AI Backlash
English Summary
The exponential advancement of AI is set to make AI policy the most critical issue in the 2028 U.S. election, driven by profound domestic disruptions. Key risks include widespread job displacement, dangerous misuse potential, and the government's ability to conduct unprecedented surveillance. To mitigate the resulting political backlash, policy must proactively address three interconnected pillars: establishing domestic safety regulations, implementing social policies to broadly distribute AI's economic gains, and maintaining global technological leadership. Failure to act now risks a reactive, inadequate policy response that could undermine both American competitiveness and national security, particularly against China.
中文摘要
人工智慧（AI）的指數式發展預計將使AI政策成為2028年美國大選中最關鍵的議題，其背後驅動因素源於深層的國內衝擊。主要風險包括大規模的失業取代、危險的濫用潛力，以及政府進行前所未有監控的能力。為緩解由此產生的政治反彈，政策必須主動應對三個相互關聯的支柱：建立國內安全規範、實施社會政策以廣泛分配AI的經濟收益，以及維持全球技術領導地位。若不當前採取行動，恐將導致反應性、不完善的政策回應，從而損害美國的競爭力與國家安全，尤其是在面對中國的挑戰時。
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