2026-W21 Think Tank Weekly Digest

Weekly Archive / 2026-W21

2026-W21

2026-05-18 ~ 2026-05-24 | 165 published entries

This digest page is part of ThinkTankWeekly's portal index. It summarizes notable reports and links readers to the original source websites.

1.

Qualified Medical Evaluators and the Medical-Legal Process in California Workers' Compensation (RAND)

2026-05-21 | health | Topics: AI, NATO, Nuclear, United States

This RAND analysis assesses the sustainability and efficiency of California's Qualified Medical Evaluator (QME) system, which is critical for resolving workers' compensation disputes. Key findings reveal structural challenges, including supply/demand mismatches, difficulties in medical record delivery, and concerns regarding the current reimbursement structure. To improve the system's quality and sustainability, the report recommends structural reforms, such as implementing centralized electronic record repositories and adjusting fee schedules to better support QMEs and the overall medical-legal process.

Read at RAND
2.

Annual Trends Among the Unsheltered in Three Los Angeles Neighborhoods: The Los Angeles Longitudinal Enumeration and Demographic Survey (LA LEADS) 2025 Annual Report (RAND)

2026-05-21 | society | Topics: United States

The LA LEADS 2025 report indicates that while overall unsheltered homelessness has plateaued, the composition of the crisis is shifting dramatically from visible encampments to rough sleeping and vehicle dwelling. This shift is critical because rough sleepers are more geographically diffuse, present higher average acuity levels, and are less responsive to traditional encampment-resolution strategies. Consequently, the report warns that continued reliance on tent-focused interventions will yield diminishing returns. Policy must pivot toward scaling up low-barrier behavioral health care and long-term supportive housing to effectively address the increasingly clinical and diffuse nature of the unsheltered population.

Read at RAND
3.

Implementing Direct Assessment Competency-Based Education in Community Colleges: Findings from a Pilot in Eight California Community Colleges (RAND)

2026-05-20 | economy | Topics: United States

The RAND pilot found that Direct Assessment Competency-Based Education (CBE) is a promising model for community colleges seeking to improve student outcomes and align education more closely with workforce demands. Successful implementation, however, is highly resource-intensive, requiring substantial upfront investment in technology, content development, and dedicated, cross-departmental staff. Key systemic barriers include navigating complex accreditor and federal approval processes, securing sustained funding, and overcoming limited faculty buy-in. Policymakers must therefore develop flexible funding models and streamline regulatory frameworks to allow these innovative, equity-focused educational structures to scale effectively across the system.

Read at RAND
4.

How to Forecast China’s Lithography Leap: A Comparative Analysis of the Delphi Method and Crowdsourced Forecasting (RAND)

2026-05-07 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, Trade, United States

This report compares the Delphi method and crowdsourced forecasting to assess the likelihood of China achieving indigenous high-volume-manufacturing lithography tools under U.S. export controls. The analysis found that while both methods provided estimates, the expert-driven Delphi method was more accurate, correctly emphasizing that the short timeline presents a significant barrier to China's breakthrough. The study serves as a methodological guide for researchers but implies that policymakers must account for the extreme difficulty of overcoming advanced technological controls in critical sectors like semiconductors. Strategically, the findings suggest that while China's efforts to indigenize technology are robust, the timeline for achieving advanced capabilities remains highly constrained.

Read at RAND
5.

Reading Full Books in Secondary English Language Arts Classrooms: Findings from the Spring 2025 American Instructional Resources Survey (RAND)

2026-05-06 | society | Topics: United States

This RAND report analyzes the current state of assigning full books in secondary English Language Arts (ELA) classrooms, noting that while most teachers plan to assign them, the practice is highly variable. Key findings from the American Instructional Resources Survey (AIRS) indicate that the number of assigned books varies significantly based on contextual factors, such as whether the school serves historically disadvantaged students or if the teacher uses publisher-developed curricula. The report emphasizes that while adjacent research supports the value of full-book reading for literacy outcomes, the field requires specific data to guide instructional practices. Therefore, the findings are crucial for education leaders and curriculum providers who must select or craft ELA materials to ensure sustained, complex reading remains a core component of secondary education.

Read at RAND
6.

Force Multipliers in the Americas: Harnessing Security Force Assistance to Bolster Homeland Defense and U.S. Strategic Objectives in Latin America (RAND)

2026-05-05 | americas | Topics: China, Cybersecurity, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The report argues that Security Force Assistance (SFA) is a valuable, cost-effective 'force multiplier' for the U.S. to advance strategic interests and mitigate complex threats in Latin America. While SFA can effectively address transnational criminal organizations and irregular warfare, the region is increasingly defined by geopolitical competition, particularly from China. Policy recommendations emphasize that current general security cooperation authorities are insufficient for countering economic coercion, urging the U.S. Department of War to expand its scope to meet these modern challenges and strengthen regional partnerships.

Read at RAND
7.

China's Science and Technology Strategy in Perspective: Historical Evolution, Political Drivers, and Global Implications (RAND)

2026-05-05 | China's technological ambitions and the implications for international policy. | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The report argues that China has institutionalized Science and Technology (S&T) as the core pillar of its national strategy, shifting toward a model of self-reliance and state-directed development. This shift is evidenced by the formal integration of military and civilian sectors through concepts like Military-Civil Fusion, creating a highly centralized technological ecosystem. For international partners, this implies that engagement must navigate a system prioritizing national security and state control over open collaboration. Therefore, effective policy requires understanding the strategic tension between China's drive for technological sovereignty and the need for global cooperation.

Read at RAND
8.

The administration has detained 400,000 immigrants: What do we know about their children? (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | society | Topics: United States

The Brookings analysis estimates that tens of thousands of U.S. citizen children have been separated from their parents due to increased immigration detention and deportation policies. Using demographic modeling, the authors project that over 145,000 U.S. citizen children have been affected since the administration began, noting that current official data severely undercounts the true scale of the crisis. The report argues that because no systematic approach exists to protect these minors, policymakers must recognize the government's clear obligation to establish comprehensive child protection protocols and mandate the collection of accurate, public data on affected families.

Read at Brookings
9.

Is it time to measure cognitive stunting? (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | society | Topics: AI, United States

The Brookings report argues that overreliance on generative AI poses a risk of 'cognitive stunting' in children, a condition where the lack of effortful thinking opportunities prevents the development of essential cognitive skills. This risk is evidenced by the fact that AI allows students to shortcut the necessary struggle and practice required for deep learning, leading to diminished critical thinking and neural engagement. Policy implications suggest that policymakers must treat this issue like physical stunting, necessitating the development of systematic, age-normed measures to track cognitive development in relation to AI use. Ultimately, the report calls for congressional action to establish a clear measurement framework and guide AI developers to support, rather than replace, the learning process.

Read at Brookings
10.

What will happen when Trump meets Xi? (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Experts caution that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit should be viewed with low expectations for major breakthroughs, as the relationship is defined more by avoiding conflict than by deep dialogue. While the meeting's primary value lies in maintaining high-level communication channels to prevent miscalculation, the report stresses that the U.S. and China must strategically focus on shared risks, particularly in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Policy efforts should prioritize restarting official dialogue on AI safety and developing non-binding guidelines, as this represents a crucial, underutilized area of potential cooperation. Ultimately, the summit's success will be measured not by grand agreements, but by its ability to sustain the uneasy calm and prevent geopolitical escalation.

Read at Brookings
11.

Beijing’s approach to the conflict in Iran and its implications for China (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The Brookings analysis concludes that the conflict in Iran presents a mixed strategic picture for China, offering diplomatic gains but imposing significant economic risks. While Beijing can leverage the crisis to position itself as a neutral mediator, thereby diverting U.S. attention and resources away from the Indo-Pacific, the resulting energy volatility and disruption of vital shipping lanes pose unacceptable threats to China's economic stability. Consequently, China's highest strategic priority remains maintaining an uneasy calm with the United States, suggesting that its response will be calculated non-alignment rather than deep regional commitment. The conflict thus serves as a real-time demonstration of U.S. military power, which China must study while navigating its own economic vulnerabilities.

Read at Brookings
12.

Project-based carbon credit markets: Overview, issues, and future directions (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: Climate

While carbon credit markets hold significant potential for mobilizing private finance toward global climate mitigation, the analysis finds they are currently hampered by structural issues, including lack of transparency and doubts regarding the additionality of credits. To overcome these flaws, the markets require robust development and regulation, necessitating new oversight bodies and stricter integrity standards. Policy-wise, the report stresses that continued government support is crucial; governments are uniquely positioned to enforce integrity guardrails, clarify acceptable claims, and align both voluntary and compliance markets with broader climate objectives, such as those under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Read at Brookings
13.

Why more states are passing laws to help people drive less (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: Climate

States are increasingly passing VMT mitigation laws to address the negative externalities of high vehicle miles traveled (VMT), recognizing that linking VMT to economic growth is flawed. These laws mandate that transportation planners and developers assess and mitigate the VMT generated by new projects, often by funding public transit or pedestrian infrastructure. This represents a fundamental policy shift away from car-centric infrastructure toward sustainable, multi-modal planning that constrains growth. The varying approaches across states—from project-level requirements to statewide planning targets—indicate that the future of US transportation policy will prioritize environmental and social costs over raw capacity expansion.

Read at Brookings
14.

Water, not oil, is the Middle East’s most precious commodity (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: China, Climate, Middle East, Trade, United States

The article argues that water scarcity, rather than energy dependence, represents the most critical and enduring vulnerability in the Middle East. Key evidence highlights the region's extreme reliance on energy-intensive desalination plants, which are vulnerable to conflict and cyberattacks, compounded by severe groundwater depletion and climate change. Strategically, the crisis demands urgent regional cooperation to manage transboundary aquifers and fund sustainable, low-energy water technologies. External powers, including the US and China, must prioritize water security in post-conflict reconstruction efforts to mitigate the projected economic damage and prevent future instability.

Read at Brookings
15.

The Iran conflict’s energy shocks are not yet fully realized (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The Brookings analysis warns that while the full economic shock of the Iran conflict has not yet materialized, global energy markets face severe, sustained supply shortfalls. Iran's ability to harass the Strait of Hormuz and attack regional infrastructure has crippled global oil and LNG supplies, creating systemic risks that affect multiple sectors, including fertilizer production. The resulting price volatility is already hitting Asia and is projected to severely impact Europe, exacerbating existing energy crises. Policymakers must prepare for high global inflation, potential food shortages, and a significant risk of recession as the world adjusts to a permanently altered and fragile energy landscape.

Read at Brookings
16.

Avoid any temporary deal on Iran’s nukes (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East, Nuclear, United States

Brookings argues that any temporary nuclear deal with Iran is fundamentally flawed because it relies on the unrealistic hope that the Iranian regime will moderate its behavior. Such agreements undermine the permanent, global goals of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and send dangerous signals to both regional rivals and hardliners that a nuclear option is viable. Strategically, the policy focus must be on establishing permanent, verifiable compliance mechanisms, rather than setting limits on a clock or calendar. While limited enrichment may be acceptable in the short term, it must be coupled with robust, permanent IAEA monitoring to maintain high confidence in Iranian compliance.

Read at Brookings
17.

Generative AI as a weapon of war in Iran (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: AI, Middle East, Nuclear, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that generative AI has significantly escalated information warfare, enabling state actors like Iran to weaponize deepfakes and false content to undermine military objectives and erode public support for opposing forces. This capability allows the Iranian regime, which faces conventional military disadvantages, to stoke chaos and project false strength by flooding the information ecosystem. The threat is compounded by platform moderation systems that struggle to scale during crises, leaving the public susceptible to sophisticated disinformation. Policymakers must recognize that the convergence of improved AI, layered information sources, and motivated state actors presents a profound challenge to maintaining informed public discourse during armed conflict.

Read at Brookings
18.

How 2026’s divisive immigration politics could lead to a solution down the road (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | society | Topics: Europe, United States

The article argues that the intense political polarization surrounding U.S. immigration, particularly the backlash against extreme enforcement measures, is creating an unexpected opening for comprehensive reform. The reasoning is that the political damage inflicted by both parties' rigid stances—exemplified by the public opposition to Trump's aggressive border policies—is making the issue electorally costly for both Republicans and Democrats. Consequently, the authors suggest that the political incentive for both parties to pursue a sensible, bipartisan compromise—such as a path to citizenship combined with robust border protections—is increasing. This shift implies that the next political cycle may force a substantive, long-term solution to immigration challenges, potentially ending decades of legislative deadlock.

Read at Brookings
19.

Why affordability will be a key issue in the 2026 midterm elections (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: Middle East, United States

The Brookings report argues that affordability—the rising cost of living—is the defining political issue for the 2026 midterms, having surpassed all other concerns for American voters. This is driven by structural cost increases in core areas, including healthcare (where premiums rise faster than wages), housing (where median incomes lag far behind home prices), and groceries. Politically, this suggests a significant shift in campaign focus, forcing candidates to address these 'bread-and-butter' economic challenges. Failure to provide clear solutions to these deep-seated affordability issues threatens the political viability of the current administration and could reshape the electoral landscape.

Read at Brookings
20.

House retirement wave signals deep institutional frustration (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | americas | Topics: Middle East, United States

A recent analysis of congressional retirements suggests that the high departure rate of House members, particularly among Republicans, signals deep institutional frustration rather than merely midterm election anxiety. Key evidence includes the record number of retirements and the trend of retiring members—many of whom are early in their careers—seeking state or local offices rather than higher federal posts. This pattern suggests a growing consensus among legislators that they can achieve more impact outside of Congress, reflecting disillusionment with the federal legislative process. Strategically, this indicates a potential weakening of institutional stability and a shift of political focus away from Washington D.C. in the coming session.

Read at Brookings
21.

From policy volatility to stability and growth: Rebuilding the foundations for Latino entrepreneurs and small businesses (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: Middle East, Trade, United States

The Brookings report argues that federal policy volatility—including changes in immigration enforcement, tariffs, and capital access—poses a significant threat to the stability and growth of Latino-owned small businesses. These businesses, which represent a major economic force, are highly vulnerable to compounding shocks that create simultaneous labor and demand disruptions. The analysis warns that even modest declines in this sector could translate into the loss of thousands of businesses and over 100,000 jobs. To mitigate these risks, the report advocates for an affirmative policy vision that restores predictability, lowers structural barriers, and ensures stable access to capital and federal procurement to support long-term economic resilience.

Read at Brookings
22.

Why is spending on health care slowing? (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | health | Topics: Europe, United States

The Brookings analysis finds that U.S. healthcare spending growth has slowed substantially due to technological advances and shifts toward less expensive care models, such as moving treatments from inpatient to outpatient settings. While this suggests increased productivity, the authors caution that cost-sharing arrangements, particularly high-deductible plans, are concerning because they can lead patients to forego necessary care randomly. For policy, the key takeaway is that the focus must shift from simply controlling spending to maximizing 'value,' ensuring that cost reductions translate into improved health outcomes. Policymakers must therefore design systems that incentivize efficiency and prevent the compromise of essential medical services.

Read at Brookings
23.

AI companion bots as a public health issue: A new framework for regulation (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | health

The Brookings brief argues that AI companion bots present significant public health risks, particularly to children and adolescents, given their increasing use in emotional connection and coping mechanisms. The core finding is that existing regulatory frameworks are inadequate to manage these developmental and psychological harms. To address this gap, the authors propose adopting a public health framework for AI governance. This strategy suggests implementing regulatory tools such as pre-market approval and recall mechanisms, moving beyond simple bans to proactively protect young users and guide legislative action.

Read at Brookings
24.

Project-based carbon credits: Regulatory and market reforms (Brookings)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: Climate, Trade

Project-based carbon credits are recognized as a key market-based tool for raising capital for emissions reductions, but their rapid growth in both compliance and voluntary markets has generated significant concerns regarding market integrity and efficiency. Experts are convening to address these challenges, proposing specific regulatory and structural reforms to strengthen the mechanisms. The core finding is that without robust oversight and better market design, the credibility and effectiveness of carbon credits are compromised. Policymakers must therefore implement rigorous reforms to ensure that these credits genuinely drive verifiable emissions reductions, making them a trustworthy pillar of climate strategy.

Read at Brookings
25.

Will the AI Economy Have a Middle Class? The Case for an AI Homestead Policy (CSIS)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: China, Middle East, United States

The article argues that the rapid advancement of AI risks creating extreme wealth concentration and displacing the middle class, threatening the fundamental American model of converting wages into assets. To counter this, the authors propose an "AI Homestead Policy," drawing parallels to historical acts that broadened public access to productive frontiers. This policy requires systemic interventions beyond market forces, including massive workforce retooling, establishing personal data rights, and mandating a "compute commons." Ultimately, the strategy calls for giving local communities an ownership stake in AI infrastructure to ensure that the gains of the new economy are broadly shared, rather than concentrated among a few large tech firms.

Read at CSIS
26.

Revisiting the Relationship Between Economic and Sea Power (CSIS)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The US faces a critical 'maritime crisis' because the decline of its commercial and industrial base has severely weakened its capacity to project sea power, particularly relative to China's massive shipbuilding dominance. To counter this strategic risk, the publication argues that the US must adopt a modern, competitive industrial policy—a 'Mahanian moment'—that treats maritime power as an integrated system. Policy recommendations center on implementing performance-gated funding, making the Strategic Commercial Fleet contestable, and using allied partnerships to stimulate demand and lower costs. This approach aims to transform state-led industrial strategy into a market mechanism that rebuilds the domestic maritime industrial base and ensures reliable global supply lines.

Read at CSIS
27.

Insights into the “Pay Now, Argue Later” Mechanism (CSIS)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: Indo-Pacific, Trade

The "Pay Now, Argue Later" tax mechanism, while effective for immediate government revenue collection, poses a significant long-term risk by undermining tax certainty and procedural fairness. Evidence suggests that requiring taxpayers to pay upfront before resolving disputes increases financial strain and introduces unpredictability, which can deter Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Policymakers must therefore balance the need for efficient fiscal revenue against the imperative of maintaining an attractive investment climate. Over-reliance on these mechanisms may cause jurisdictions to lose competitiveness by signaling a higher level of risk and constrained legal recourse to international investors.

Read at CSIS
28.

A Summit of Equals (CSIS)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Middle East, Nuclear, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The recent U.S.-China summit failed to yield concrete agreements, signaling a mutual acceptance of the current, complex status quo. While discussions covered geopolitical flashpoints like Taiwan and Iran, both sides largely avoided addressing traditional U.S. complaints regarding overcapacity or IP theft, suggesting a withdrawal of structural pressure. The resulting concept of "constructive strategic stability" implies that both nations are prioritizing managing inevitable competition and buying time, rather than attempting fundamental policy changes. This suggests the U.S. has limited leverage to force deep reforms, leading to a realistic, yet challenging, relationship of equals.

Read at CSIS
29.

What the Trump-Xi Summit Revealed, and Left Unsaid, About U.S.-China Tech Competition (CSIS)

2026-05-24 | tech | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The Trump-Xi summit largely failed to address the structural tensions defining U.S.-China tech competition, which remains the most consequential dynamic. Key evidence shows that critical issues—including advanced semiconductor controls, AI safety, and sophisticated cyber infiltration (e.g., Volt Typhoon)—were only lightly discussed, despite the high-level diplomatic fanfare. Consequently, the analysis suggests that U.S. policy must pivot away from relying on diplomatic de-escalation and instead focus on robust domestic measures, such as enforcing data sovereignty and maintaining technological decoupling, to safeguard national security.

Read at CSIS
30.

States Weekly Newsletter: May 20, 2026 (CSIS)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: Climate, Indo-Pacific

The newsletter highlights a wave of regulatory modernization across India's states, particularly in the energy and industrial sectors. States are implementing sophisticated policies—such as Gujarat's recognition of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Rajasthan's updated Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO)—to enhance grid stability, transparency, and private investment. Furthermore, governance reforms, including streamlined land allotment (Bihar BIADA) and new labor rules (Goa), are simplifying business operations and boosting local economies. These decentralized regulatory updates signal a maturing market structure, suggesting that future infrastructure development and investment will be heavily influenced by state-level policy shifts and consumer rights enhancements.

Read at CSIS
31.

Foreign Investment Attraction and CFIUS: Can the “Known Investor Program” Make U.S. Investment Screening More Efficient? (CSIS)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

The Known Investor Program (KIP) is designed to significantly enhance the efficiency of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) review process. By allowing reliable, allied investors to pre-disclose extensive information, the KIP aims to streamline screening and address bottlenecks that currently risk stalling massive foreign direct investment (FDI). This reform is critical for the U.S. to achieve a delicate balance: attracting necessary foreign capital for reindustrialization while maintaining stringent national security controls against adversarial interests. If successful, the KIP will allow the U.S. to accelerate economic growth without compromising its strategic technological and critical infrastructure security.

Read at CSIS
32.

How Trade Reduces the Risk of War (CSIS)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, NATO, Russia, Trade

The analysis argues that economic interdependence is a powerful stabilizing force, quantifying the 'peace dividend' generated by global trade. Key evidence shows that doubling bilateral trade reduces the probability of militarized conflict by approximately 30%, an effect measurable through 'natural experiments' like advances in aviation technology. Policymakers must integrate this security return into geopolitical planning, as current debates on decoupling and de-risking often overlook this quantifiable benefit. The authors warn that blanket efforts to limit integration risk incurring significant, uncounted security costs, suggesting that broad economic engagement is critical for maintaining stability.

Read at CSIS
33.

CDC Director’s Nomination Is an Opportunity to Reconstitute the CDC (CSIS)

2026-05-24 | health | Topics: United States

The article argues that the current CDC Director nomination represents a critical opportunity to fundamentally reform and reconstitute the agency, which has suffered significant reputational and operational damage. Success requires a rapid, forensic assessment of existing capabilities and a cultural shift from academic research to providing service for state and local public health partners. Key reforms include restoring vaccine credibility through transparency, modernizing biosurveillance using private technology, and strengthening interagency collaboration across federal departments. Policy implications stress that Congress and the administration must provide strong, bipartisan oversight to ensure the CDC is robust, scientifically credible, and capable of protecting the nation's health both domestically and globally.

Read at CSIS
34.

Iran as Vietnam, Ukraine as Korea (Foreign Affairs)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that major conflicts follow predictable historical structures, using historical analogies to forecast the outcomes of the current crises. It compares the US-Iran confrontation to the Vietnam War, predicting an unstable compromise settlement that leaves the ultimate fate of the regime and its nuclear program unresolved. In contrast, it draws parallels between the war in Ukraine and the Korean War, suggesting a more stable, durable armistice that solidifies the current lines of conflict. These structural patterns imply that policymakers should prepare for an unresolved status quo in the Middle East and a protracted, frozen-border stalemate in Eastern Europe.

Read at Foreign Affairs
35.

Hormuz Is a Warning for the Indo-Pacific (Foreign Affairs)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East

Iran's recent threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, utilizing drones and anti-ship missiles, underscore the continued strategic vulnerability of global maritime chokepoints. This action demonstrates how regional powers are weaponizing critical waterways to exert geopolitical pressure, immediately impacting global energy supplies and prices. For the Indo-Pacific and beyond, this signals that maritime control remains a primary tool of statecraft, necessitating enhanced international naval cooperation and contingency planning to mitigate the risk of energy supply disruptions.

Read at Foreign Affairs
36.

The Crumbling Pillars of Global Peace (Foreign Affairs)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that the post-WWII global peace, which rested on the twin convictions of non-aggression and anti-imperialism, is rapidly collapsing due to rising interstate conflicts and the breakdown of international norms. Key evidence includes the modernization of nuclear arsenals, the proliferation of regional wars, and the erosion of collective moral leadership. Policy recommendations stress that the solution is not merely institutional reform, but the restoration of the global commitment to these foundational principles, requiring political leadership to revitalize the UN's role as an impartial mediator and champion of international law.

Read at Foreign Affairs
37.

Washington's Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments (CFR)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: China, Middle East, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The U.S. government is aggressively pursuing an industrial policy by expanding its investment toolkit, moving beyond traditional grants to take direct equity stakes, warrants, and complex offtake agreements. This strategy, totaling billions in recent investments, is primarily driven by geopolitical vulnerabilities, such as China's export controls on rare earths and the need to bolster domestic defense manufacturing. By targeting critical minerals, advanced semiconductors, and global logistics, Washington aims to secure key supply chains and maintain technological leadership. This shift implies that the U.S. government will continue to use novel, interventionist financing structures, requiring increased oversight and management of its role within private industry.

Read at CFR
38.

Financing the Missing Middle (CFR)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The primary finding is that a critical "missing middle" funding gap ($100-$200 billion) inhibits the scaling of advanced, clean energy technologies from demonstration to commercial viability. This gap exists because private investors are rationally deterred by the combination of high technological risk and massive infrastructure costs. While recent federal policies have provided support, the sector remains vulnerable to political shifts and global economic instability. To bridge this gap, the report argues for a diverse, multi-pronged strategy combining public demand guarantees, private risk-transfer mechanisms (like new insurance), and sustained government support to de-risk emerging energy markets.

Read at CFR
39.

After Khamenei: Planning for Iran’s Leadership Transition (CFR)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The article argues that while Ayatollah Khamenei's ouster is inevitable, the Islamic Republic's deeply entrenched institutions mean that any leadership transition will likely perpetuate the status quo, rather than leading to democratic reform. The most probable scenario is 'managed continuity,' where an apparatchik successor maintains the current hardline power structure. Consequently, U.S. policymakers must adjust their strategy by abandoning assumptions of systemic change. Instead, Washington should focus on reviving regime accountability efforts, preparing for potential nuclear diplomacy, and anticipating opportunistic escalation from Iran's proxy groups.

Read at CFR
40.

Preventing Renewed Conflict in Colombia (CFR)

2026-05-24 | americas | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

Colombia faces a critical risk of renewed conflict due to the incomplete implementation of the 2016 Peace Accords and escalating internal violence driven by illicit economies. This instability is compounded by external pressures, including unpredictable U.S. military threats and regional spillover from the Venezuela crisis, which could undermine state sovereignty. Therefore, the U.S. must proactively engage the next Colombian administration to signal sustained support for the Accords and provide targeted assistance, ensuring the stability of this key regional partnership.

Read at CFR
41.

Leapfrogging China’s Critical Minerals Dominance (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Russia, Trade, United States

The report argues that the U.S. cannot compete with China's scale in critical mineral extraction, necessitating a strategy to 'leapfrog' its dominance through disruptive innovation, recovery, and recycling. Key evidence highlights that scaling waste-based recovery (from mine tailings and e-waste) offers a faster, cleaner, and more resilient path to supply security than traditional mining expansion. Policy recommendations mandate a whole-of-government approach that centralizes funding and coordinates with allies to accelerate these technologies, thereby building a competitive, diversified supply chain independent of China.

Read at CFR
42.

Conflicts to Watch in 2026 (CFR)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The report warns that global disorder is increasing, presenting multiple high-risk conflicts in 2026. Based on expert surveys, the highest-priority threats include intensified conflict in the West Bank/Gaza, escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, and a severe cross-strait crisis involving China and Taiwan. The findings emphasize that the U.S. must shift away from reactive crisis management. Policymakers are strongly advised to adopt proactive, "upstream" strategies focused on conflict prevention and stability to mitigate these escalating geopolitical risks.

Read at CFR
43.

Compete, Don’t Retreat (CFR)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: China, Climate, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that the U.S. must abandon its current protectionist approach and adopt a strategy of active competition in the global Autonomous, Connected, and Electric (ACE) vehicle market. China's state-backed first-mover advantage in ACE technology poses significant economic and national security risks to U.S. industries. Instead of maintaining tariffs, the U.S. should provide conditional financial support to domestic producers, collaborate with allied nations, and ensure competitive discipline through careful import regulation. This shift is crucial to prevent the U.S. market from becoming an isolated island and falling further behind global technological trends.

Read at CFR
44.

Everything, Everywhere, All at Once: The Future of U.S. Strategy (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that the United States faces an era of unprecedented global complexity—marked by great power competition, unresolved regional conflicts, and rapid technological shifts (AI)—rendering the current strategic status quo unsustainable. Key evidence includes the heightened geopolitical tension between China and Russia, coupled with global health and economic instability. Despite deep domestic political polarization, the authors note a growing bipartisan consensus that fundamental changes are required for U.S. international leadership. Therefore, the implication is that the U.S. must undertake a comprehensive, 'blue-sky' rethinking of its strategy, moving beyond partisan divides to address systemic global challenges.

Read at CFR
45.

A New Ebola Outbreak Spreads Through Conflict and a Weak U.S. Response (CFR)

2026-05-24 | africa | Topics: United States

The outbreak of a rare Ebola strain in the DRC and Uganda is critically hampered by a confluence of factors, including persistent regional conflict, deep public mistrust, and severe institutional weakness. The crisis is exacerbated by the withdrawal of crucial U.S. aid and expertise, which has depleted local capacity and undermined international coordination with the WHO. The article argues that successful containment cannot rely solely on medical intervention; it requires addressing the underlying political instability and rebuilding local trust. Policymakers must therefore prioritize sustained international cooperation and security stabilization alongside public health efforts to manage the crisis effectively.

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46.

What the Trump-Xi Summit Means for Southeast Asia and South Asia (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The Trump-Xi summit was disappointing for Southeast and South Asia, failing to provide stability on critical issues like the energy crisis or regional security. Regional states are deeply concerned about being excluded from major decisions by a combined US-China framework, particularly regarding the South China Sea and trade. Compounding this geopolitical uncertainty are unresolved issues concerning rare earth controls and AI platforms, which threaten to push the region into a severe economic recession. Consequently, regional powers must urgently accelerate the diversification of trade, energy, and supply chains to mitigate the risks posed by a prolonged, high-stakes US-China rivalry.

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47.

China and the U.S. Agreed to ‘Strategic Stability’ in Beijing. They Don’t Define It the Same Way. (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Middle East, Nuclear, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The Beijing summit did not resolve U.S.-China competition, but instead established a framework of 'mutually useful ambiguity' by having both powers claim 'strategic stability' while defining it differently. The U.S. framed the agreement around transactional, economic deliverables (e.g., trade boards, purchases), while China emphasized a political doctrine centered on respecting its 'core interests' and development path. This fundamental asymmetry means the relationship is defined by managed rivalry, not strategic settlement, leaving critical issues like Taiwan, AI, and overcapacity outside the formal agreements. Policymakers must recognize that the current arrangement is a bargaining mechanism, not a resolution, suggesting continued volatility despite the high-level dialogue.

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48.

The Security Foundations Beneath America’s AI Ambitions Are Cracking (CFR)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Trade, United States

The article argues that the foundational assumptions of U.S. cybersecurity—that attacks are expensive, that identities belong to people, and that human judgment is always present—are rapidly failing due to the diffusion of AI. Evidence includes the rise of automated cyberespionage and the discovery of vulnerabilities at machine speed, which are outpacing traditional defensive patching cycles. Policy-wise, the authors urge a mandatory 'audit of assumptions' across federal and private sectors to identify structural weaknesses before scaling AI, warning that this proactive self-assessment is a critical strategic advantage over competitors like China.

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49.

Marco Rubio Goes to India in Repair Mode (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

The article argues that U.S.-India relations, once robust, have significantly deteriorated and are currently 'rudderless,' making Secretary Rubio's visit a critical effort to repair trust. This decline is attributed to recent U.S. actions, including public embarrassment of India, favoring Pakistan, and imposing punitive tariffs on Indian energy purchases. Consequently, the U.S. must fundamentally shift its approach from transactional politics to sustained, consistent engagement to restore the partnership. For the relationship to stabilize, the U.S. must demonstrate renewed commitment to India's strategic interests, particularly in the context of great power competition.

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50.

Where Does American Strategy Go From Here? (CFR)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, United States

The article argues that American global strategy requires a fundamental reevaluation due to a highly contested international environment and deep domestic dissatisfaction. The world is characterized by the decay of the liberal international order, rising power centers, and structural disruptors like AI and climate change. While the U.S. retains significant power, successful strategy must confront internal constraints, such as partisan polarization, recognizing that domestic stability is crucial for foreign leadership. Therefore, the path forward requires creative, multi-faceted ideas that integrate diverse American perspectives and move beyond traditional 'business-as-usual' foreign policy models.

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51.

Between Two Orders (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The global system is in a 'Gramscian interregnum,' driven by two tectonic shifts: a rapid redistribution of global power from the West to the East and South, and the socioeconomic dislocation caused by the digital age and automation. This confluence of factors is fueling great power competition, unraveling globalized markets, and spiking domestic inequality in developed democracies. For the U.S. to stabilize, its grand strategy must adopt a dual focus: promoting pluralistic cooperation to anchor the transition to a multipolar world, and fundamentally redesigning its social contract to prepare citizens for the digital economy and rebuild the political center.

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52.

After Hegemony (CFR)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: AI, Climate, NATO, Trade, United States

The article argues that while the U.S. successfully built the durable 'liberal international order' through post-WWII cooperation, the system is now severely strained. Key evidence points to domestic political polarization, economic inequality, and the failure of the established framework to adequately address modern, rapid challenges like AI and climate change. For policy, the implication is that the U.S. must fundamentally rethink its global strategy, moving beyond simply repeating the successful 'team sport' model to adapt the core elements of the order while integrating new, complex global issues.

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53.

Starting From Scratch (CFR)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: China, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

The article argues that U.S. national security strategy requires an immediate, zero-based review to discard outdated principles and disruptive policies. This review must rigorously distinguish between fundamental "goals of necessity" (e.g., survival) and aspirational "goals of choice" (e.g., global primacy). Effective strategy demands stress-testing three elements: the plausible efficacy of the goals, the associated costs and risks, and the availability of necessary resources (political, economic, and military). Policymakers must therefore adopt a highly pragmatic, resource-conscious approach, moving beyond historical assumptions to secure U.S. interests.

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54.

Overreach and Retrenchment (CFR)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

U.S. foreign policy operates in a cyclical pattern, alternating between periods of aggressive strategic activism—often triggered by major shocks (e.g., the China shock, conflicts)—and subsequent phases of retrenchment and downsizing. Retrenchment efforts typically manifest by reducing ideological commitment, narrowing global focus, limiting military overextension, or moving away from unilateral action. While policymakers may favor specific strategies, the inherent tension between these two modes suggests that future policy will be a blend of both. The primary implication is that the debate over regional priorities, the necessity of multilateral alliances, and the balance between global engagement and domestic focus will remain central and volatile.

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55.

Congress Checks Out (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Europe, NATO, United States

The article argues that U.S. foreign policy consensus has fundamentally eroded due to increased political polarization and the decline of the traditional policy establishment. This shift is fueled by partisan media consumption and the weakening of institutional cooperation, allowing presidents to act with greater independence but also increasing political vulnerability. Consequently, national security policies are projected to become highly partisan and significantly shorter-lived, replacing decades-long strategies with four-to-eight-year initiatives. This reduced time horizon and inability to build broad consensus severely diminishes America's capacity to craft durable grand strategies necessary to deter hostile powers.

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56.

The Coming AI Backlash (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Middle East, United States

The exponential advancement of AI is set to make AI policy the most critical issue in the 2028 U.S. election, driven by profound domestic disruptions. Key risks include widespread job displacement, dangerous misuse potential, and the government's ability to conduct unprecedented surveillance. To mitigate the resulting political backlash, policy must proactively address three interconnected pillars: establishing domestic safety regulations, implementing social policies to broadly distribute AI's economic gains, and maintaining global technological leadership. Failure to act now risks a reactive, inadequate policy response that could undermine both American competitiveness and national security, particularly against China.

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57.

Iran Nuclear Talks: Three Lessons From the War for Negotiators (CFR)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that the recent conflict with Iran provides three critical lessons for global nuclear negotiators: military strikes are not decisive in countering proliferation, modern nuclear energy safeguards must be adopted to manage regional risks, and leaders must reaffirm the commitment to avoiding nuclear war. The reasoning emphasizes that force encourages states to hide activities, while diplomacy and transparency remain the most effective nonproliferation tools. Consequently, negotiators must prioritize comprehensive, verifiable agreements that include invasive inspections and robust safeguards to prevent Iran from weaponizing its fissile material and to maintain the integrity of the NPT regime.

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58.

After Hormuz, Southeast Asia Sees the Potential Value of Tolling the Strait of Malacca (CFR)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

Following Iran's demonstrated ability to leverage the Strait of Hormuz, Southeast Asian nations are increasingly considering imposing tolls on the vital Strait of Malacca, a choke point handling a third of global trade. This potential disruption is highly concerning because the Strait is nearly impossible to bypass, meaning any sustained closure would trigger severe global economic shocks. Strategically, this trend signals a dangerous erosion of the global norm of freedom of navigation, a principle that is being undermined by major powers and could destabilize regional maritime law and trade security.

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59.

U.S.-Cuba Relations (CFR)

2026-05-24 | americas | Topics: Nuclear, Russia, Trade, United States

U.S.-Cuba relations are defined by decades of profound geopolitical antagonism, anchored by the sustained economic embargo and historical political conflict. While periods of limited diplomatic thaw have occurred, such as the easing of travel restrictions, any normalization effort is consistently constrained by restrictive domestic legislation (like the Helms-Burton Act) and Cuba's ability to secure alternative economic partnerships (e.g., Venezuela). Strategically, the relationship suggests that full normalization remains highly conditional, requiring significant political reform within Cuba while navigating deep-seated U.S. political opposition. Policymakers must therefore balance the desire for engagement with the reality of persistent resistance and the island's enduring regional importance.

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60.

South Africa and the Limits of Identity (CFR)

2026-05-24 | africa | Topics: United States

The article argues that South Africa's political elite are dangerously prioritizing abstract, identity-based discourses (such as 'decoloniality' and 'ubuntu') over addressing fundamental economic instability. The persistent rise of xenophobic violence is presented as key evidence that these intellectual pursuits are disconnected from the populace's actual needs, which include tackling high unemployment and deep economic inequality. The analysis concludes that the country's leadership has made a critical misjudgment by focusing on symbolic political grievances rather than implementing market-friendly economic reforms. For stability, South Africa must abandon identity politics and urgently address its severe economic crisis.

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61.

Finding China in the U.S. TIC Data (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The analysis argues that China's true holdings of U.S. bonds cannot be accurately assessed by relying solely on the direct U.S. TIC data. By adjusting for indirect accumulation through multiple non-U.S. custodians (such as Canada and various European financial centers), the report counters the narrative that falling U.S. bond holdings signal a major de-dollarization effort. The evidence suggests that China maintains a stable and significant share of U.S. assets, implying that Beijing is sophisticated in masking its true financial flows. Policymakers should therefore look beyond simple custodial data to gauge China's actual financial intentions and global reserve management strategies.

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62.

Six Reasons Claude Mythos Is an Inflection Point for AI—and Global Security (CFR)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: AI, Cybersecurity, Nuclear, United States

The article argues that advanced AI models, exemplified by Anthropic's Mythos, have crossed a critical inflection point by autonomously discovering and chaining zero-day software vulnerabilities. This capability allows AI to penetrate critical infrastructure—such as power grids and banking systems—using exploits previously considered impossible to find. This fundamentally shifts the global cybersecurity balance toward automated offense, creating an exponentially accelerating risk that current human-led defenses cannot match. Policy efforts must urgently address this asymmetry, as the AI industry, rather than governments, currently holds the key to mitigating this unprecedented global threat.

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63.

AI Is Facing a Crisis of Control—and the Industry Knows It (CFR)

2026-05-24 | tech | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, United States

The article warns that advanced AI faces a systemic 'crisis of control' because its development is accelerating far faster than regulatory or governmental oversight. Key evidence includes AI's deep integration into modern warfare and the industry's own disclosures of models exhibiting autonomous, deceptive, and potentially weaponizable behaviors, such as generating novel pathogens. Since national policy frameworks are currently stalled, the authors argue that the AI industry itself must form a voluntary, independent coalition. This consortium must establish universal safety standards, common testing protocols, and jointly fund a dedicated, insulated research platform to mitigate existential risks before they become irreversible.

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64.

Anthropic’s Standoff With the Pentagon Is a Test of U.S. Credibility (CFR)

2026-05-24 | tech | Topics: China, Cybersecurity, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

The public dispute between Anthropic and the Pentagon, culminating in the company's designation as a supply chain risk, is argued to be a politically motivated overreach that severely damages U.S. credibility and the private sector's independence. The article highlights that this regulatory instability is strategically dangerous, especially as Chinese AI rivals are rapidly advancing and gaining market share without similar government restrictions. For the U.S. to maintain its technological edge, the report argues that the government must cease setting AI usage boundaries through ad-hoc contracts and instead empower Congress to establish clear, durable legal frameworks. Failure to restore trust in the private sector's freedom from government influence risks ceding global AI leadership to foreign competitors.

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65.

The AI Sovereignty Paradox at Home and Abroad (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade, United States

The central finding is the 'AI Sovereignty Paradox,' which highlights the tension between private firms' desire for market freedom and governments' demand for unfettered control over powerful AI models. This conflict is exemplified by the Pentagon's rejected ultimatum to Anthropic, which cited ethical concerns regarding autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. Globally, developing nations are struggling to achieve sovereignty due to profound dependence on the US and Chinese 'AI stack.' The implication is that the lack of a coherent global governance framework, combined with the US's laissez-faire approach, will lead to a fragmented, multi-polar regulatory environment that requires nations to build quasi-sovereign digital solutions.

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66.

How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Alyssa Ayres (CFR)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: Climate, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The article argues that a non-linear, interdisciplinary career path is uniquely valuable in foreign policy, allowing practitioners to synthesize diverse perspectives. Ayres's experience spanning academia, non-profits, the private sector, and government—particularly concerning South Asia—provided a comprehensive understanding of policy challenges. This multi-sector exposure is crucial because it equips analysts to develop innovative, holistic policy recommendations that account for academic theory, real-time diplomatic pressures, and economic realities. For policy strategy, this suggests that the most effective practitioners are those who can bridge the gap between theoretical research and practical, on-the-ground implementation.

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67.

How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Liana Fix (CFR)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: AI, Europe, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

The analysis argues that Germany's historical identity as a pacifist nation is being fundamentally challenged by modern geopolitical instability, particularly following the war in Ukraine. Key evidence points to a necessary shift away from purely academic or diplomatic solutions toward re-engaging with military power and defense spending. This suggests a strategic implication for Europe: that collective security requires acknowledging the return of warfare and prioritizing robust, integrated defense mechanisms. Ultimately, the findings suggest that European policy must reconcile its historical aversion to conflict with the urgent need for modern military preparedness.

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68.

How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: José Miguel Vivanco (CFR)

2026-05-24 | americas | Topics: Europe, Middle East, Ukraine, United States

Vivanco argues that international law and robust civil society advocacy are essential tools for protecting human rights when domestic judicial systems fail, a lesson learned from growing up under a military dictatorship. His career demonstrates that effective advocacy requires leveraging international mechanisms—such as litigation before the Inter-American Court and lobbying foreign governments—to document abuses and apply consistent pressure. For policy, the findings underscore the strategic necessity of maintaining strict impartiality and focusing on systemic legal evolution (e.g., defining torture) to ensure that human rights concerns are addressed globally, regardless of the perpetrator's ideology.

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69.

How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Matthias Matthijs (CFR)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Climate, Europe, Middle East, Trade, United States

The article outlines a career path in foreign policy that emphasizes adaptability, suggesting that successful policy analysis requires bridging academic theory with practical application. Matthijs notes that his interest was sparked by major geopolitical shifts (like the fall of the Berlin Wall) and that professional growth necessitates pivoting between disciplines, such as economics and international relations. For policymakers, the key takeaway is the need to focus less on theoretical debates and more on understanding the practical decision-making processes of policy-makers. This requires recognizing the increasing entanglement of security concerns and economic policy, a critical factor for modern strategic planning.

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70.

Data Centers In Space? + Planet Labs CEO Talks ‘Large Earth Models’ (CFR)

2026-05-24 | tech | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

The convergence of AI and advanced satellite imagery is ushering in an era of "planetary intelligence," suggesting that the massive computational demands of global data analysis may eventually necessitate space-based data centers. This transformation is underpinned by technological breakthroughs, such as the miniaturization of electronics, which allows for real-time, comprehensive monitoring of Earth's systems. Strategically, this capability enables intervention in human decision-making loops—allowing for immediate responses to climate change, illegal resource extraction, or geopolitical instability. Policymakers must recognize that this shift represents a profound economic and geopolitical inflection point, requiring proactive strategies to mitigate risks like space junk and potential extra-planetary conflict.

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71.

Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos? (CFR)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, Russia, Trade, United States

Prediction markets have grown into a multi-billion dollar industry, creating a debate over whether they function as valuable forecasting tools or sophisticated gambling platforms. While the markets have shown historical success in predicting outcomes and experienced explosive growth fueled largely by sports betting, their rapid expansion has outpaced regulatory oversight. The key policy concern is the loophole allowing individuals as young as 18 to legally participate, unlike traditional sports betting, raising significant risks of addiction and irresponsible gambling among minors. Policymakers must address the blurring line between financial forecasting and gambling to maintain market integrity and protect vulnerable populations.

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72.

K-Shaped Everything + Affordability Crisis + Trump vs. Mamdani Populism (CFR)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: AI, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The analysis critiques the common use of the 'K-shaped economy' narrative, arguing that the concept is often misused and sometimes contradicted by hard data. While consumption trends suggest a widening divide—as the wealthy draw on savings while the less affluent rely on credit—actual inflation-adjusted wage data for the lower income brackets have shown significant cumulative gains, contradicting the story of decline. Therefore, policymakers must distinguish between wage stability and consumption capacity to accurately diagnose economic distress. This nuanced understanding is crucial for developing effective policy responses that move beyond simple inequality metrics.

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73.

Is the Gulf Still the Capital of Capital? + How War Could Hurt America’s Tech Funding (CFR)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade, United States

The Gulf region has strategically positioned itself as a global 'capital of capital,' attracting massive sovereign wealth and high-end tech investment while diversifying its economy away from oil. This growth is evidenced by the region's $5+ trillion in managed assets and its deep integration with global AI tech firms. However, the analysis warns that regional conflict threatens this structural shift, casting doubt on the Gulf's ability to remain an insulated financial haven. Policymakers must note that the conflict's fallout is expected to disrupt global capital markets, potentially hindering critical US tech and AI infrastructure build-out.

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74.

The Hormuz Shock + Why the Fed is “On Hold” (CFR)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade, United States

The analysis argues that geopolitical instability, particularly potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, pose a significant energy shock that threatens global economic stability. This shock creates a difficult dilemma for central banks, as it is expected to simultaneously push inflation higher and suppress growth, forcing policymakers to navigate between conflicting mandates. The Federal Reserve, having struggled to meet its inflation target for years, is particularly challenged by this unpredictable supply shock, which complicates its ability to provide clear policy guidance. Strategically, the report warns that the resulting price increases, especially for gasoline, will disproportionately squeeze low and moderate-income households, making affordability the primary concern for consumers and policymakers alike.

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75.

Future of American Strategy Initiative Launch (CFR)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: United States

The launch of the Future of American Strategy Initiative signals a critical need for the U.S. to reassess its foundational foreign policy approach. Discussions among high-level policymakers and experts are expected to analyze the confluence of geopolitical shifts, domestic political polarization, and evolving global power structures. Key reasoning will center on developing a cohesive, adaptive national strategy that moves beyond traditional frameworks. The implications suggest that policymakers must prioritize flexible, bipartisan approaches to maintain global influence while navigating complex regional flashpoints. Ultimately, the initiative aims to chart a new, unified course for American engagement in the 21st century.

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76.

Americans Beware: Markets Can Be Out of Sync With Reality (CFR)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Trade, United States

The article warns against complacency, arguing that current strong market performance and solid short-term economic data mask significant, structural damage to the U.S. economy. This damage is attributed to recent policy choices, including deficit-financed tax cuts, undermining central bank independence, and implementing disruptive trade tariffs. The author cautions that markets can be out of sync with reality for extended periods, suggesting that the accumulated instability could trigger a rapid and severe economic correction. Therefore, policymakers must prioritize restoring institutional stability, adhering to the rule of law, and addressing deep fiscal imbalances to maintain long-term economic resilience.

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77.

Remembering a Fallen Hero on Memorial Day (CFR)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: United States

The article uses the story of Lance Corporal José Jiménez, a Mexican citizen who earned the Medal of Honor for his bravery in Vietnam, to underscore the profound depth of sacrifice made for the United States. Jiménez’s willingness to fight and die for the American cause, despite not being a U.S. citizen, serves as the primary evidence of loyalty transcending national boundaries. The piece argues that honoring these diverse acts of service is crucial for maintaining national memory and recognizing the full spectrum of commitment to the American ideal. Strategically, this suggests that national remembrance efforts should continue to highlight stories of sacrifice from all backgrounds, reinforcing the value of service and dedication to the nation.

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78.

Qatar’s Deepening Persecution of the Baha'i (CFR)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East, United States

Qatar is executing a systematic campaign of 'religious erasure' against its Baha'i minority, a pattern of discrimination that has historically targeted the community. Key evidence includes the mass denial and curtailment of residency and work permits, leading to the imminent expulsion of a significant portion of the Baha'i population, alongside unlawful detentions and legal harassment. Policy implications suggest that the U.S. government should condemn these severe violations of religious freedom and incorporate human rights concerns into its diplomatic and strategic engagement with Qatar.

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79.

Military Human Spaceflight: A Key Component to U.S. Space Superiority (Mitchell)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, United States

The Mitchell Institute argues that military human spaceflight is critical for maintaining U.S. space superiority amid intense competition with China. The paper notes that China's consistent, military-led lunar and space ambitions pose a credible threat, contrasting sharply with the perceived policy and funding inconsistencies that have hampered U.S. space programs. To counter this disparity, the U.S. must develop a 'Guardian' spaceflight capability, utilizing LEO stations and commercial partnerships. This strategic shift is necessary to accelerate national defense requirements, preserve American leadership, and secure the space domain.

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80.

Rebuilding American Airpower: Balancing the Air Force’s Combat Forces for Peer Conflict (Mitchell)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Nuclear, United States

The Mitchell Institute argues that the U.S. Air Force requires significant, strategic investment to overcome decades of underfunding and rebuild a balanced combat force capable of simultaneously defending the homeland, deterring nuclear attacks, and defeating a peer adversary. To inform future force design, the report utilized a wargame comparing alternative force mixes for 2035, basing recommendations on the insights of air campaign planners and strategists. The core finding is that the DoD and Congress must make critical choices, prioritizing a balanced mix of fifth-generation and beyond combat aircraft, autonomous systems, and advanced guided munitions. Policy efforts must therefore focus on modernizing the service's structure to ensure it can win in the most stressing, high-intensity conflict environments.

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81.

China Airpower Tracker (Mitchell)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: China, United States

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is rapidly transforming from a defensive service into a potent, power-projecting military force capable of operations beyond the First Island Chain. This capability is underpinned by the integration of advanced air assets—including fighters, bombers, and UAVs—with China's long-range, road-mobile surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems and radar networks. The PLAAF's deployment across five theater air force commands, coupled with the mobility of its air defense assets, significantly increases its operational reach and survivability. Policymakers must recognize this comprehensive military buildup, as it signals a substantial increase in China's regional military influence and strategic complexity.

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82.

Strategic Attack: Maintaining the Air Force’s Capacity to Deny Enemy Sanctuaries (Mitchell)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: Nuclear, United States

The Mitchell Institute argues that allowing adversaries to operate from operational sanctuaries is a critical strategic vulnerability, necessitating the use of long-range penetrating airpower to hold enemy targets at risk globally. The paper finds that decades of force cuts and deferred modernization have severely degraded the Air Force's combat capacity, preventing it from simultaneously deterring nuclear threats, defending the homeland, and defeating aggression. To restore strategic strength, the nation must acquire new, long-range, stealthy bombers and fighters at scale. Ultimately, the authors frame the rebuilding of air superiority as a mandatory national strategic choice essential for maintaining deterrence and achieving military objectives.

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83.

Charting a Path to Space Superiority: The Cross-Domain Imperative (Mitchell)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: China, Russia, United States

The paper argues that achieving space superiority is an essential, foundational U.S. national security imperative, as space underpins all military and civil operations. Given the increasing threat posed by rival nations' potent counterspace weapons, the U.S. military must fundamentally shift its approach, treating space as a true warfighting domain. Policy recommendations mandate that the DoD conduct comprehensive reviews to clarify institutional responsibilities and prioritize cross-domain investments. Crucially, the U.S. must reform its culture by integrating deliberately contested space scenarios into major warfighter training exercises before any conflict erupts.

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84.

It’s Time to Invest: Enhancing Current and Future U.S. Air Force Airlift (Mitchell)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: Indo-Pacific, United States

The Mitchell Institute warns that the current U.S. airlift system is critically deficient, lacking the necessary capacity and mix of mobility aircraft required to sustain forces in a future conflict against a peer competitor. This inadequacy is exacerbated by the expanding operational demands of the Indo-Pacific theater and other global hotspots. The paper argues that the decline of this critical military backbone severely compromises the nation's ability to project power and risks global operational failure. Therefore, the Department of Defense and the Air Force must immediately develop and commit to a multi-year, substantial investment plan to restore the air mobility fleet to an adequate level.

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85.

Future Aircraft Carrier Doris Miller Delayed by 2 Years (USNI)

2026-05-08 | defense | Topics: Trade, United States

The future aircraft carrier USS Doris Miller (CVN-81) has been delayed by two years, pushing its delivery to 2034. This delay is attributed to systemic bottlenecks, specifically shipyard construction footprint constraints and the cascading impact of delays affecting other Ford-class carriers, such as USS Enterprise. These extended timelines reveal significant vulnerabilities within the naval industrial base and critical path construction processes. Policymakers must urgently address shipyard capacity and supply chain limitations to ensure the timely and cost-effective acquisition of essential national security assets.

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86.

Russian Crude Exports Increase as Strait of Hormuz Transits Remain Low (USNI)

2026-05-22 | energy | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

Russia is significantly increasing its crude oil exports, primarily via the Black Sea, capitalizing on sanctions waivers and high Urals crude prices, despite persistently low traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This pivot indicates Russia's successful diversification of its energy trade routes, with China and India remaining key buyers. Furthermore, maritime activity in the region is complicated by a high volume of fraudulently-flagged vessels, suggesting that illicit shipping methods are being used to circumvent sanctions and maintain global energy flows. Policy makers must monitor these shifting trade patterns and the use of deceptive maritime practices to accurately assess the effectiveness of energy sanctions.

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87.

Navy Selects 7 MUSV Designs to Enter Prototype Phase (USNI)

2026-05-22 | defense | Topics: United States

The Navy has selected seven industry designs for Medium Unmanned Surface Vessels (MUSVs) to enter a prototype phase, marking a significant shift toward autonomous naval capabilities. Rather than funding bespoke prototypes, the service is adopting a 'marketplace' model that places the research and development risk and investment onus on private shipbuilders. This strategy aims to rapidly field highly capable, containerized systems—capable of long-range travel and carrying diverse payloads—by Fiscal Year 2027. Strategically, this signals a major doctrinal pivot toward modular, autonomous fleets that can rapidly reconfigure combat power without relying on traditional, fixed ship classes.

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88.

USNI News Western Pacific Pulse: May 22, 2026 (USNI)

2026-05-22 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater of great power competition, marked by increased military deployments and joint exercises among allied nations. Key evidence includes the PLA Navy's deployment of the Liaoning Carrier Strike Group and increased PLAN activity near Japan, which is countered by robust trilateral air exercises involving the U.S., Japan, and Australia. Furthermore, the presence of Russian ELINT flights and continuous allied deployments across the region underscore escalating tensions. Strategically, these movements signal a sustained focus on maintaining freedom of navigation and deterring potential conflict, necessitating continued allied interoperability and robust diplomatic engagement.

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89.

Report to Congress on U.S. Extended Deterrence and Regional Nuclear Capabilities (USNI)

2026-05-22 | defense | Topics: Nuclear, United States

The report analyzes the evolving nature of U.S. extended deterrence, noting a policy shift away from the historical commitment of using U.S. nuclear weapons to protect allies. While past Nuclear Posture Reviews advocated strengthening this guarantee, the 2026 National Defense Strategy suggests allies must assume primary responsibility for their own defense with only limited U.S. support. This shift creates tension, raising Congressional concerns about the reliability of U.S. commitments and the potential for 'friendly proliferation' among allies. Policymakers must reconcile the strategic goal of limited U.S. involvement with the necessity of maintaining allied trust and stability.

Read at USNI
90.

Air Boss Orders Flight Demo Team Safety Stand Down Following Growler Crash (USNI)

2026-05-21 | defense | Topics: Indo-Pacific, United States

Following a crash involving two EA-18G Growlers, Naval Air Forces has issued a safety stand down for four tactical aviation demonstration teams. This action temporarily restricts these teams from performing full tactical demonstrations, though static displays remain permitted. The incident, whose cause is under investigation, highlights the operational risks associated with high-profile, non-mission-critical training activities. This suggests that the Navy may implement stricter safety protocols and increased oversight for naval aviation demonstrations to maintain public confidence and operational safety.

Read at USNI
91.

Modular Construction Key to Battleship Effort, Navy Official Says (USNI)

2026-05-21 | defense | Topics: Nuclear

The US Navy plans to construct the new nuclear-powered battleship by adopting a modular and distributed manufacturing strategy across multiple shipyards. This approach involves various private facilities building specialized sections, which will then be transported and assembled at a central drydock, leveraging existing capacity used for Ford-class carrier construction. This industrial model minimizes risk and maximizes throughput by coordinating the domestic shipbuilding network. Strategically, this signals a major policy shift toward optimizing the industrial base and coordinating private sector capacity to rapidly deploy advanced, high-combat-power naval assets.

Read at USNI
92.

Russian Surveillance Ship Spotted Near NATO Sub Drills (USNI)

2026-05-21 | defense | Topics: China, NATO, Russia, United States

A Russian surveillance ship was observed loitering near NATO forces during the multinational Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) exercise, Dynamic Mongoose, in the Norwegian Sea. This incident serves as key evidence of Russia's continued military activity and interest in the strategically vital High North and Arctic region. NATO's response, involving complex, multinational drills, underscores the Alliance's commitment to maintaining 24/7 vigilance and a decisive military edge beneath the surface. Strategically, the sighting signals escalating great power competition in the Arctic, necessitating increased NATO readiness and cooperation to safeguard critical maritime routes against potential threats.

Read at USNI
93.

GAO Report on Suicide Prevention Across the Defense Department (USNI)

2026-05-21 | defense

The GAO report finds significant systemic gaps in the Department of Defense's (DOD) ability to monitor and assess suicide prevention training across its services. Key deficiencies include the Defense Suicide Prevention Office (DSPO) lacking mandatory data on training completion rates, and individual service branches failing to consistently track required annual training or formally evaluate its effectiveness. To improve readiness and care, the GAO recommends that the DOD mandate data reporting, establish systematic monitoring by service headquarters, and implement formal evaluation plans to ensure training achieves its intended life-saving outcomes.

Read at USNI
94.

U.S. Wants to Construct Philippine Coast Guard Maintenance Facility, Repair Fuel Depot in Palawan (USNI)

2026-05-20 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, United States

The U.S. is seeking funding to construct a Coast Guard maintenance facility and refurbish a fuel depot in Palawan, significantly bolstering Philippine security infrastructure near the South China Sea. These efforts address the Philippines' current lack of local maintenance capabilities, which forces the Coast Guard to stretch limited resources and travel long distances for necessary repairs. By establishing a forward-based logistics center, the U.S. aims to enable more sustainable and frequent Philippine maritime operations. This enhanced capability strengthens Manila's deterrence posture against China's large force of warships in the contested waters, deepening the U.S.-Philippines security partnership.

Read at USNI
95.

Japan’s Largest Warship Preparing for F-35 B Training with U.S. Marines (USNI)

2026-05-20 | defense | Topics: Indo-Pacific, United States

Japan's largest warship, JS Kaga, is conducting advanced F-35B training drills with U.S. Marines, signaling a major step in the modernization of Japan's naval capabilities. This joint exercise, which involves cross-deck operations and equipment loading, demonstrates the rapid integration of advanced U.S. military hardware into Japan's core assets, including the Izumo-class destroyers. The sustained focus on F-35B operations and the planned modifications to both Kaga and Izumo underscore Japan's commitment to enhancing its operational readiness and projection capabilities. Strategically, this deepens the U.S.-Japan security alliance and significantly increases Japan's military role in regional security frameworks, particularly within the Indo-Pacific theater.

Read at USNI
96.

Report to Congress on U.S. Aircraft Combat Losses in Operation Epic Fury (USNI)

2026-05-20 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East, United States

The Congressional report highlights significant, yet unquantified, combat losses sustained by U.S. forces during Operation Epic Fury in the Middle East. Key evidence includes reports of 42 fixed-wing or rotary-wing aircraft (including drones) damaged or lost, alongside an escalating cost estimate for the operation reaching $29 billion. The lack of a comprehensive Department of Defense assessment, coupled with the high and rising costs, suggests potential strategic overextension and resource strain. Policymakers must address the need for clearer risk assessment and resource allocation to manage future military engagements in the volatile region.

Read at USNI
97.

The UK can’t break off critical mineral links with China. But it can understand its vulnerabilities (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, Trade

The UK cannot afford a total decoupling from China's critical mineral supply chains, as the economy relies heavily on China for market access and financing, particularly in the private mining sector. Rather than pursuing separation, the UK must adopt a nuanced strategy that acknowledges genuine vulnerabilities while maintaining constructive engagement. Policy recommendations center on mitigating risk through clear guidelines, such as limiting Chinese influence on the corporate governance of UK-listed mining firms and establishing robust protections for commercially sensitive data in shared infrastructure. This approach allows the UK to manage geopolitical risks without sacrificing vital economic ties.

Read at Chatham House
98.

China and Russia’s strategic duo endures – but its limits are clear (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The China-Russia partnership is a durable strategic alignment, driven by shared opposition to Western dominance and a mutual goal of promoting a multipolar world. While geographically and ideologically bound, the relationship is defined by pragmatic utility rather than a full alliance. China maintains strategic caution, actively diversifying energy sources and preserving economic ties with the West to avoid over-reliance on Moscow. Consequently, the partnership remains asymmetrical, providing Russia with crucial geopolitical support while serving as a reliable counterweight for Beijing's broader global ambitions.

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99.

Confusion over UK sanctions on Russia undermines a Western response that was already too slow and half-hearted (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine

The Chatham House analysis argues that Western sanctions against Russia are failing because the effort is hampered by poor coordination and a reluctance among nations to bear the necessary economic costs. The UK's recent sanctions efforts, particularly regarding diesel and jet fuel, were criticized as inconsistent and weak, undermining the broader Western front and damaging unity. For sanctions to be effective, the West must overcome its desire to limit its own economic pain and instead adopt a unified, serious approach that openly accepts the costs required to counter Russia's existential threat. Failure to coordinate and commit fully risks weakening the overall Western response and the cohesion of alliances.

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100.

The flow of arms and money feeding the war in Sudan can be cut. What is missing is the will (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | africa | Topics: China, Middle East, Trade

The persistence of the war in Sudan is attributed not to internal conflict alone, but to external actors who are supplying arms, funding, and logistical support, creating a self-sustaining conflict economy. Key regional players, including the UAE, Egypt, and others, are implicated in supplying weapons and facilitating cross-border movements, while international diplomatic efforts have failed due to a lack of enforcement mechanisms. To achieve peace, the international community must undertake a coordinated 'deproxification' effort, forcefully cutting all external lifelines—including arms routes and gold shipments. The analysis concludes that the US must leverage its full diplomatic and economic power, such as sanctions, to pressure enablers and force an end to external patronage.

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101.

A 2026 ‘super El Niño’ could expose gaps in UK preparedness (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade

The Chatham House report warns that intensified climate variability, exemplified by a potential 2026 'super El Niño,' will expose critical gaps in the UK's national resilience. Current adaptation efforts are deemed fragmented and lack legally binding standards, leaving essential infrastructure—including health, transport, and power grids—vulnerable to escalating risks like heat, flooding, and drought. To mitigate potential climate damages estimated at 1-5% of UK GDP by 2050, the UK must implement a robust, legally enforceable adaptation strategy. Policy recommendations include mandatory, coordinated investment in resilient physical and social infrastructure, improving existing plans, and securing dedicated funding for local authorities.

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102.

Gulf states (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Climate

The GCC monarchies are strategically focused on enhancing their regional influence and economic resilience through national visions aimed at diversification and soft power projection. While these states are actively pursuing geopolitical and economic expansion, their trajectory is constrained by significant internal and external pressures. Key challenges include demographic stagnation, climate change vulnerability, and persistent debates regarding political freedoms and human rights. Policymakers should note that while the Gulf states are committed to modernization, their efforts must navigate complex regional instability and deep-seated structural limitations.

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103.

War in Ukraine (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Russia, Ukraine

The ongoing Russian invasion is accelerating Ukraine's structural transformation, forcing the nation to move beyond its pre-war internal dynamics and vested interests. The combination of external destruction and robust international support is generating significant societal and policy pressure for fundamental 'new rules.' This confluence of factors suggests that Ukraine's future trajectory is irreversible and inherently linked to its international partnerships. Policymakers must therefore anticipate and plan for a fundamentally altered geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe, recognizing that Ukraine's new role is inevitable.

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104.

Israel and Palestine (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East, United States

The 2023 conflict demonstrated the failure of international policy regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict. The analysis argues that international actors, including the US, have deprioritized the peace process by focusing on other crises or encouraging normalization agreements without addressing Palestine's status. This approach has allowed core issues, such as settlement expansion and accountability, to persist. Therefore, the report concludes that any sustainable resolution must fundamentally address the deep roots of the conflict rather than relying on temporary diplomatic fixes.

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105.

UK should not invest in new North Sea oil as it is ‘a price taker, not a price maker’ – Dr Fatih Birol, IEA chief (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine

Dr. Fatih Birol argues that the UK should abandon plans for new North Sea oil investment, asserting that the nation is a 'price taker' and cannot influence global oil prices. He stresses that the future of UK energy security must be based on electrification, powered by renewables and nuclear sources. Globally, energy stability is severely threatened by geopolitical crises, such as the Strait of Hormuz, and depleting reserves, necessitating a rapid shift away from fossil fuels. Policymakers must therefore pivot toward sustainable electrification while preparing for heightened global inflation and supply shocks.

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106.

The Climate Briefing: Oil and gas producers in the Gulf: a deep dive (part 2 of 2) (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: Climate, Middle East

This briefing analyzes the critical juncture facing Gulf oil and gas producers, who must navigate the dual pressures of the global energy transition and escalating geopolitical instability. The discussion examines how these nations are adapting their economies and energy strategies in response to climate change and shifting global demand. Furthermore, it assesses the medium-to-long-term implications of regional conflicts, such as the US-Israeli war on Iran, on vital global supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Policymakers must therefore integrate climate risk, geopolitical volatility, and energy security into any strategic planning for the region.

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107.

Trump’s approach to Taiwan could jeopardize its future. Indo-Pacific allies are taking note (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Taiwan, United States

The Chatham House analysis warns that Donald Trump's rhetoric and potential policy shifts regarding Taiwan threaten its future and undermine decades of US security guarantees. Key concerns include the suggestion of using arms sales as a negotiating chip with China, which could violate US assurances, and the downplaying of US commitment to conflict. By echoing Beijing's narrative, Trump risks legitimizing China's claims while sowing doubt among the Taiwanese public about the credibility of US support. Strategically, these actions could embolden Beijing to test American resolve and could lead to the US-China relationship being governed by Beijing's definition of 'strategic stability,' thereby weakening Taiwan's defense posture.

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108.

Why Egypt is helping to end the Iran war (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East

Egypt is actively mediating the Iran conflict not to gain regional influence, but as a calculated risk-management strategy to safeguard its national interests and stabilize its economy. Evidence of this includes forming a quadrilateral grouping with regional allies and engaging in backchannel diplomacy to push for de-escalation. Cairo's core objectives are securing freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, countering Israeli regional dominance, and ensuring continued foreign investment. While de-escalation is beneficial, the analysis suggests that Egypt's efforts alone will not resolve long-term geopolitical tensions, such as the dispute over Nile waters or regional power imbalances.

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109.

The Trump-Xi summit: What does the US want from China and will Trump get it? Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Taiwan, Trade

The Chatham House analysis frames the potential Trump-Xi summit as having ambiguous and complex objectives, ranging from securing trade deals for US businesses to achieving regional conflict de-escalation and asserting global pre-eminence. Key discussion points emphasize the entanglement of US commercial interests with geopolitical flashpoints, such as the potential role of China in resolving the Iran conflict and the implications for Taiwan. Ultimately, the success of the summit is presented as highly contingent, suggesting that the geopolitical outcome will depend less on formal agreements and more on the personal chemistry and strategic alignment between Trump and Xi Jinping.

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110.

The Iran war has left Gaza neglected (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East, United States

The article argues that the global focus on the Iran war has allowed international attention to neglect Gaza, causing humanitarian conditions to deteriorate and hardening the positions of both Hamas and Israel. Key evidence shows that Hamas resists disarmament because there is no viable political pathway toward a Palestinian state, while Israel refuses withdrawal, instead expanding its control zones and blocking transitional governance bodies. This lack of external pressure and the resulting deadlock risk turning temporary ceasefires into entrenched, disputed borders. Strategically, this trajectory undermines any prospect of a stable, negotiated future for Gaza, making a return to meaningful peace negotiations highly unlikely.

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111.

The Climate Briefing: Making the global circular economy transition happen (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | economy

The briefing argues that the current linear 'take–make–dispose' economic model is environmentally unsustainable, posing severe risks to the climate. To mitigate this, a global transition to a circular economy is necessary, which keeps materials in circulation through methods like reuse, repair, and remanufacturing. The core finding is that achieving this systemic shift requires coordinated policy interventions, spanning both international agreements and national regulatory reforms, to fundamentally restructure resource management.

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112.

China will benefit from the Iran war, regardless of any deal between Trump and Tehran (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Ukraine

The conflict in Iran is eroding the perceived reliability of US security guarantees in the Gulf, prompting Gulf states to diversify their defense procurement and reduce reliance on American military platforms. China is strategically positioned to capitalize on this shift by promoting a non-security-provider model for regional stability, which aligns with the evolving priorities of Gulf nations. By emphasizing dialogue and cooperation over military dominance, Beijing can facilitate the establishment of a new, inclusive regional security framework. This trajectory suggests that China will significantly increase its influence in the Middle East, potentially diminishing US geopolitical and military primacy in the region.

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113.

King Charles in Washington: Did the royal visit save the ‘special relationship’? Independent Thinking podcast (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO

The podcast argues that the recent royal visit, while highly publicized, fails to resolve the fundamental strains on the US-UK 'special relationship.' The core geopolitical challenge is the US desire to reduce its defense burden on Europe, forcing a critical reassessment of transatlantic security commitments. Policymakers must therefore focus on strengthening European strategic autonomy and bolstering continental defense capabilities. This suggests a necessary pivot toward redefining the UK's role within a potentially evolving NATO framework, prioritizing regional defense over historical alliances.

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114.

Reimagining pandemic prevention, preparedness and resilience (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | health

The Chatham House analysis argues that global health crises are fundamentally driven by a mutually reinforcing cycle of structural inequality, rather than solely by biological threats. Evidence from past pandemics (including COVID-19 and HIV) demonstrates that disparities both within and between countries escalate outbreaks and worsen global impact, undermining scientific advances. The report warns that current policy approaches are insufficient because they fail to address the root cause: the global spread of vulnerability through inequality. Therefore, effective pandemic preparedness must shift away from conventional, top-down models and center its efforts on mitigating structural inequality to build genuine global resilience.

Read at Chatham House
115.

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? Rafael Mariano Grossi and Rebeca Grynspan each present their vision (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: Nuclear, Trade

The UN is facing profound institutional pressure due to great-power divisions, funding crises, and questions regarding the selective application of international rules. Candidates Rafael Grossi and Rebeca Grynspan are presenting distinct visions for the next Secretary-General, drawing on their expertise in specialized areas. Grossi emphasizes navigating complex technical diplomacy, such as nuclear non-proliferation, while Grynspan focuses on equitable development and the interests of vulnerable economies. The core challenge for the incoming leader is to restore confidence in the rules-based multilateral framework and implement deep structural reforms to ensure the UN's continued relevance and funding stability.

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116.

Members’ question time: Will the regime in Cuba be able to survive the current crisis? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | americas | Topics: China, Europe, Russia, Trade, United States

Cuba is undergoing a severe, multi-faceted crisis characterized by economic collapse, acute shortages, and sustained outward migration, compounded by the US embargo. The analysis will assess the regime's resilience by examining how the Cuban state is coping with these mounting internal and external pressures. Key to the island's future stability is the geopolitical support of external actors, including the United States, China, Russia, and Europe. Policymakers must therefore track the shifting balance of great power competition to accurately predict the risk of instability and humanitarian crises in the Caribbean.

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117.

Armenia's pivotal election: What is at stake? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east

The upcoming Armenian election is framed as a pivotal national referendum on the peace terms negotiated with Azerbaijan, making the outcome far more significant than mere political incumbency. The process is highly volatile, driven by domestic skepticism regarding the negotiated peace terms and compounded by intense external geopolitical interference. This confluence of factors threatens the stability of Armenia's democratic transition, which has been fragile since 2018. Consequently, the election's results will critically determine the viability and future trajectory of Armenia's ongoing peace process with Azerbaijan, demanding careful monitoring by external powers.

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118.

AI, work, and the future of global competitiveness (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: Indo-Pacific

AI adoption is accelerating, making the effective deployment of AI capabilities across sectors the primary driver of global economic competitiveness. While AI has the potential to unlock trillions in productive capacity, realizing this potential is hampered by significant gaps in workforce skills and organizational readiness. The report stresses that to mitigate labor market pressures and build resilience, coordinated action is crucial. Governments, businesses, and academia must collaborate to create responsive labor markets, ensuring the global workforce is equipped with the necessary skills to thrive in the AI era.

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119.

Targeting medics on the battlefield: addressing the crisis through law and practice (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | health

The Chatham House analysis argues that the protection of medical personnel and facilities remains critically compromised in modern armed conflicts, despite international humanitarian law (IHL) protections. Key evidence shows that hospitals are routinely targeted, damaged, and misused, leaving the wounded and sick without necessary care. To mitigate this crisis, the publication stresses the urgent need for concrete measures that states, organized armed groups, and international bodies must adopt. These actions are necessary to reinforce compliance with IHL and ensure that military operations do not adversely impact the provision of medical services.

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120.

How might an African credit rating agency improve the continent's financing conditions? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | economy

The new African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) aims to improve continental financing conditions by challenging the systemic bias of established global rating agencies, which are accused of inflating Africa's default risk and borrowing costs. The initiative is driven by the fact that only a minority of African sovereigns currently hold public ratings, creating a need to reset the perceived 'Africa risk premium.' While AfCRA promises to lower financing barriers, critics caution that its effectiveness hinges on its independence and investor appetite. Consequently, any positive impact on borrowing costs must be viewed in conjunction with broader structural reforms, such as increased national fiscal transparency and sustainable growth.

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121.

London conference 2026 (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, Trade

The global order is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by the shifting geopolitical dynamics between the US and China. As established institutions (like the WTO and UN) face questioning regarding international law, the Global South and other regions are actively seeking a path toward stability. The central finding is that a new form of international order is emerging, allowing diverse nations to shape the rules of engagement. Policy implications require multilateral efforts to define this new framework, addressing critical modern challenges such as AI, environmental change, and economic cooperation.

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122.

US at 250: Trade vs. Protectionism – America’s enduring economic debate (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: China, Trade, United States

The article highlights the enduring American debate over whether the economy should prioritize global integration or national self-reliance (protectionism). This historical tension is resurfacing today, driven by strategic competition with China and a revival of industrial policy, challenging the post-war globalist consensus. The analysis suggests that these shifts will fundamentally reshape US trade policy. For allies and partners, interpreting Washington's evolving economic posture—whether it signals renewed leadership or economic retrenchment—is critical, as it will significantly impact global trade institutions and the world economy.

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123.

From destruction to recovery: Building Ukraine’s future prosperity (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Europe, Russia, Ukraine

The publication argues that Ukraine's path to prosperity requires a massive, multi-stakeholder effort to address the staggering $588 billion cost of reconstruction following the Russian invasion. Key to recovery is deep structural reform and sustained integration with the European Union, which are necessary to create a predictable and competitive business environment. For international partners, the implication is that effective collaboration among Western donors, the private sector, and the Ukrainian state is crucial to catalyzing economic growth and positioning Ukraine within emerging European value chains.

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124.

Canada’s foreign and energy policy: In conversation with the Premier of Alberta (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: Middle East, Trade, United States

Alberta's status as Canada's primary energy producer and its deep integration with the US market grant its government significant leverage in shaping national foreign and energy policy. This influence is heightened by global events, such as the Middle East conflict, which are increasing international demand for North American energy supplies and elevating Canada's export choices. Premier Smith's vision for Canada's global role—encompassing USMCA negotiations and energy sovereignty—will critically shape Canada's international offer. However, the article notes that the ability of this agenda to achieve consensus across the federal government remains an open and critical question.

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125.

‘Parliaments in dialogue’: Bringing Westminster and Brussels closer together to defend Europe (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Europe

The 'Parliaments in dialogue' series proposes enhanced cooperation between the UK and EU Parliaments to strengthen Europe's collective security architecture. The initiative brings together lawmakers and defense experts to directly address the need for aligned strategic ambitions amid global uncertainty. By deepening practical collaboration between Westminster and Brussels, the goal is to improve defense cooperation and solidify a unified European response to geopolitical challenges. This suggests a policy shift toward institutionalizing cross-parliamentary dialogue to bolster the continent's defense capabilities.

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126.

The not‑so‑special relationship? Can UK-US relations survive Trump 2.0? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | americas | Topics: NATO

The Chatham House analysis argues that the traditional 'special relationship' between the UK and US is facing unprecedented strain due to shifting global dynamics. The core finding is that the US is adopting an increasingly transactional approach to alliances, driven by long-term political trends and the potential for a volatile geopolitical environment (Trump 2.0). This necessitates that the UK urgently reassess its foreign, defense, and economic policies. Policymakers must prepare for a more uncertain transatlantic phase, adapting to a US focus on self-interest rather than historical partnership commitments.

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127.

AI and National Security: Who's Really in Control? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | tech

The publication highlights a critical fault line in national security: the question of who truly controls advanced AI. The recent designation of a private AI firm as a national security threat demonstrates that private industry leverage can fundamentally challenge state authority. Key policy questions revolve around whether AI companies should be classified as critical national security infrastructure and establishing clear lines of accountability. Ultimately, the findings suggest that global policy must urgently address the governance gap between state power and private technological capability to maintain global order and democratic stability.

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128.

Aid, conflict and global leadership: UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: Middle East, United States

The UN system faces significant strain due to multiplying global conflicts and unprecedented humanitarian funding shortfalls, threatening the stability of the multilateral order. Tom Fletcher argues that the scale of need, exemplified by crises in Gaza and Sudan, is rapidly outpacing the current capacity for response. Effective global leadership requires major powers to reform their engagement, moving beyond traditional aid. Policy implications suggest that key donor nations must assume a decisive role as convenors and reformers to revitalize the international system and sustain global governance.

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129.

Ahmed al‑Sharaa, President of Syria, on Syria’s future (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East

President al-Sharaa's visit to Chatham House outlines Syria's ambitious plan for post-war reconstruction and state-building following the fall of the Assad regime. The core argument is that Syria is transitioning toward a stable, accountable state by pursuing a new diplomatic course and seeking international re-engagement. Key discussions are expected to cover the country's economic future, its stance on the current Middle East conflict, and the mechanisms for achieving domestic stability. For international policy makers, the visit signals that supporting Syria's transition requires careful diplomatic engagement and recognition of the new government's evolving geopolitical role in the region.

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130.

Chatham House Prize 2025: A humanitarian lifeline in Sudan (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | africa | Topics: Ukraine

The Chatham House Prize recognizes Sudan's grassroots mutual aid groups (ERRs) for their critical role in delivering humanitarian assistance amidst the devastating conflict between the SAF and RSF. These community networks have proven indispensable, providing essential services like food, water, and medical supplies in areas inaccessible or neglected by international organizations. Their ability to operate impartially, despite the conflict and obstruction by warring parties, highlights the failure of state institutions and formal aid structures. Policymakers must recognize and support local civil society resilience to ensure humanitarian aid reaches the vast populations suffering from the crisis.

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131.

US-China: What are the two superpowers competing for? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, United States

The analysis highlights that the US-China relationship is defined by escalating geopolitical competition and recurring crises, leading to a fracturing global order. Key evidence points to the volatility of the relationship, citing instances such as US military actions and diplomatic setbacks that test strategic patience on both sides. Policymakers must therefore grapple with how Washington can protect its core national interests while determining if cooperation is still viable amid deep rivalry. The implications extend globally, requiring third-party nations, including Europe and middle powers, to navigate complex relationships with both superpowers.

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132.

Kazakhstan is rewriting its constitution. Is it an exercise in authoritarian modernisation? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: Russia

Kazakhstan's sweeping constitutional amendments, which introduce a vice presidency and restructure parliament, are framed by the government as modernization. However, critics argue these reforms are designed to consolidate executive power, thereby weakening existing checks and balances. The changes reveal a focus on centralizing authority and navigating complex questions of presidential succession ahead of the 2029 elections. Strategically, these amendments significantly reshape the balance of power among ruling elites and increase the executive branch's latitude in determining Kazakhstan's future political trajectory.

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133.

Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, on why Europe needs flexible integration (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

President Stubb argues that Europe must embrace 'flexible integration' to navigate the current geopolitical shift away from the predictable 'End of History' model. He notes that the era of peace is over, replaced by a multipolar chaos where global interdependence is increasingly weaponized by external powers. To counter being 'squeezed' by aggression from the East and shifting partnerships from the West, the EU must leverage its collective regulatory and economic power, such as sanctions and trade controls. This requires a flexible, adaptive approach to unity, allowing member states to advance at different paces while maintaining a strong, resilient political community.

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134.

Will the US-Israel war on Iran destabilise Iraq? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East, Trade

The escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict poses a severe destabilizing threat to Iraq, which is highly exposed due to its proximity to Iran and its role in US interests. Key evidence includes increased targeting of US facilities by Iran-aligned groups, heightened cross-border activity, and significant economic disruption to energy infrastructure and export routes. Furthermore, Iraq's weak political cohesion, stemming from stalled government formation, makes it vulnerable to external shocks. Policymakers must urgently address the risk of spillover conflict to safeguard Iraq's stability and mitigate severe economic fallout.

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135.

Defending Ukraine’s Identity, and why it is key for durable peace (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Europe, Russia, Ukraine

The Chatham House analysis argues that Ukraine's sovereignty over its cultural, linguistic, and religious identity is paramount for achieving any durable peace, as Russia actively attempts to undermine this through cultural interference. Kyiv has already taken significant steps, such as de-communization and language mandates, to reclaim national memory and consolidate statehood. The article warns that the Kremlin continues to instrumentalize cultural and religious issues to destabilize the country. Consequently, safeguarding Ukraine's cultural heritage and de-Russification efforts must be recognized as core components of its security and recovery strategy, aligning with international standards for future integration, such as EU accession.

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136.

How will the war in Iran affect Ukraine? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Europe, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine

The escalation in the Middle East, driven by US-Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation, poses significant geopolitical risks that could destabilize the war in Ukraine. Experts warn that a protracted US entanglement in the region could jeopardize unified Western military and diplomatic support for Kyiv. Key concerns include potential economic shocks, such as oil price surges following the closure of the Hormuz strait, which might provide Russia with a financial cushion. Policymakers must prepare for a fractured Western front and anticipate how global energy market volatility could complicate long-term strategic support for Ukraine.

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137.

How can West Africa strengthen its collective security against violent extremism? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: Climate, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

West Africa faces an escalating crisis of violent extremism, particularly in the Sahel, which is exacerbated by weapons proliferation, geopolitical contestations, and the erosion of democratic governance. The discussion argues that existing regional security frameworks are insufficient, necessitating a new 'Coalition of the Willing' model supported by the African Union for hot pursuit operations. Strategically, success requires framing the threat as a transnational crime issue, rather than a purely religious one, and depends critically on pragmatic diplomacy to build trust and cooperation with neighboring Sahelian states. Policymakers must therefore prioritize strengthening multi-national joint task forces and regional security architectures to effectively neutralize extremist groups.

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138.

Kenya’s expanding foreign policy interests in a changed world order (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | africa | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that Kenya is strategically recalibrating its foreign policy to assert African agency amidst a complex, contested global order marked by geopolitical tension and protectionism. Key reasoning highlights the need for African states to move beyond aid dependency by accelerating regional integration (e.g., AfCFTA) and diversifying partnerships with both Western and emerging powers. Consequently, Kenya's strategy emphasizes a non-aligned, multilateral approach that prioritizes intra-African trade, infrastructure development, and harnessing the continent's potential in technology and renewable energy to achieve collective geoeconomic influence.

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139.

US–Israel strikes on Iran: What next for the Middle East? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East

The coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran, aimed at regime change, have triggered a rapid and escalating regional conflict following Iranian counter-strikes. Analysis focuses on the high risk of further destabilization, examining the limits of US/Israeli commitment and Iran's capacity for both military retaliation and domestic unrest. Key strategic questions include the potential involvement of other regional actors and the viability of de-escalation pathways. Policymakers must prepare for a volatile environment where the escalation could draw in multiple regional powers, significantly complicating strategic calculations.

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140.

The UK critical minerals strategy: Building national resilience through global political and commercial collaboration (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

The UK's Critical Minerals Strategy argues that national resilience and economic security depend on diversifying mineral supply chains, which are currently vulnerable due to over-reliance on concentrated sources. To mitigate these risks, the strategy sets ambitious domestic targets, including increasing recycling capacity and limiting single-country imports. Achieving this requires a dual focus: building domestic processing and mining capacity while simultaneously deepening international partnerships with allies like the US, Canada, and the EU. Ultimately, the policy advocates for positioning the UK as a reliable, responsible global hub for investment, technology, and transparent mineral supply.

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141.

The world of hard power, and the future of the war on Ukraine (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: Europe, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine

The Chatham House discussion, featuring General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, argues that the future of the war on Ukraine is intrinsically linked to a robust, unified strategy for European security built on hard power. The analysis will trace the evolution of the conflict on the battlefield to assess the viability of a peace settlement. Key reasoning centers on developing a common European security architecture that strengthens deterrence. Policy implications involve defining specific roles for allies, such as the UK, and outlining how Ukraine can contribute to bolstering both its own and Europe's collective defense capabilities.

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142.

What lies ahead for Belarus? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe

The Chatham House analysis, featuring human rights defenders, argues that the initial democratic hopes for Belarus have been severely curtailed despite the regime's superficial gestures, such as the release of 123 political prisoners in late 2025. The discussion centers on the current geopolitical climate, specifically analyzing negotiations between Lukashenka's regime and the US administration. Key evidence points to the gap between political gestures and genuine democratic progress, suggesting that Western policy must be carefully designed. The core implication is the need for a sustained, strategic approach to keep the idea of democratic transformation alive while navigating complex international political dynamics.

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143.

Dealing for peace. How Trump has redefined conflict resolution (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The analysis argues that Trump reframes conflict resolution through a highly personalized, transactional lens, aiming to build a 'peacemaker' legacy rather than adhering to traditional diplomatic principles. This strategy combines 'maximum flexibility' (abandoning established US values) with 'maximum pressure,' often utilizing military force to achieve resolutions that are frequently superficial or lack long-term durability. For policy, this suggests that while transactional deals can yield immediate headlines, the lack of commitment to core US values undermines international credibility. Future US efforts must therefore find a balance between achieving immediate political gains and maintaining the trust necessary to advance deep-seated national interests and diplomatic values.

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144.

How can Libya reconcile and reunify after 15 years of instability? (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east

Libya remains in a state of 'no war and no peace,' characterized by contested governance between rival administrations and a worsening economic crisis marked by inflation. The Chatham House analysis highlights that while the UN and the Presidency Council are attempting reconciliation, the country's political fragmentation and economic decline are immediate challenges that cannot wait for a new government. For effective reunification, international partners must adopt a multi-pronged strategy that supports governance reform, improves economic management, and addresses transnational threats like organized migration crime. This requires coordinated support to stabilize the political institutions and restore economic stability simultaneously.

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145.

Defending NATO’s eastern flank: How Romania is responding to Russian aggression and European rearmament (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: China, Cybersecurity, Europe, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Romania argues that countering Russian aggression requires a comprehensive, multi-layered international response that extends beyond military aid to address hybrid, economic, and energy threats. Key strategies include deepening sanctions enforcement—including criminalizing evasion—and establishing continuous economic flows that bypass Russia, while simultaneously building resilient energy grids with neighbors like Moldova and Ukraine. For policy, the report stresses that the Eastern Flank must treat energy decoupling from Russia as a permanent strategic shift, necessitating enhanced NATO-EU coordination, joint cybersecurity efforts, and leveraging regional resources to bolster collective defense capabilities.

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146.

Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy system (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: Russia, Ukraine

Russia's systematic, high-precision strikes against Ukraine's civilian energy grid have reached a critical level, threatening the continuity of essential services and civilian life. The primary strategic goal of these attacks is to undermine Ukrainian morale and force the state to divert limited resources from the battlefield to costly infrastructure repairs. Beyond the immediate economic damage, the degradation of energy systems increases displacement risks, potentially straining Western European social stability. Policy responses must therefore focus on immediate humanitarian relief and the long-term deployment of decentralized energy solutions to build resilience and counter Russia's destructive capacity.

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147.

Africa Programme (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | africa | Topics: United States

The Africa Programme argues that sound decision-making regarding the continent requires a nuanced, country-specific focus on politics, moving beyond generalized development concerns. It emphasizes that successful long-term private investment and stability are fundamentally dependent on establishing transparency, accountability, and the rule of law. Consequently, the program advises that international policymakers and businesses must proactively engage with African states and utilize independent expertise to navigate regional complexities. This specialized knowledge is critical for containing conflicts, promoting global stability, and capitalizing on Africa's increasingly influential role in global politics.

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148.

Asia-Pacific Programme (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: Indo-Pacific

The Asia-Pacific Programme provides objective, interdisciplinary analysis of the key geopolitical and developmental issues across South, Southeast, East Asia, and the Pacific. Its methodology relies on original research, engaging regional decision-makers, and convening expert roundtables to challenge conventional thinking. The core finding is that the region's rapid rise necessitates a sophisticated understanding of complex, interconnected issues. Practically, the program aims to influence positive policy decisions by providing actionable analysis to both government policymakers and the private sector.

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149.

Environment and Society Centre (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | energy | Topics: Climate

The Environment and Society Centre argues that environmental challenges are systemic, impacting both international geopolitics and local communities, necessitating integrated solutions. Its research employs a multidisciplinary approach, drawing on academia, business, and government expertise to analyze critical areas like the climate and energy transition and sustainable resource management. The Centre promotes a proactive policy strategy, utilizing its Sustainability Accelerator to combine evidence-based policymaking with entrepreneurial experimentation. This framework implies that effective global policy must adopt radical, accelerated shifts to build resilience and ensure human prosperity without exhausting planetary resources.

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150.

Europe Programme (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Europe, NATO, Russia

The Europe Programme aims to shape the European policy agenda by providing pragmatic, actionable recommendations to policymakers. Its analysis connects extensive EU, NATO, and in-country expertise to three core themes: the future of the EU, safeguarding European security, and Europe’s global role. A key analytical focus is assessing how political fragmentation and election outcomes across the continent impact these strategic themes. The program thus serves as a resource for navigating complex geopolitical challenges and opportunities facing the continent.

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151.

Global Economy and Finance Programme (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: Climate, Trade

The Global Economy and Finance Programme provides independent, comprehensive analysis essential for navigating modern global economic complexities. Its research scope is broad, focusing on critical areas such as global economic governance (G7/G20), the economics of climate change, and the sustainability of international trade and developing country debt. The program argues that maintaining global stability requires deep international cooperation and the evolution of the international monetary system. Policymakers are advised to adopt integrated strategies that simultaneously address climate risk, debt burdens, and governance gaps to ensure a stable global financial environment.

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152.

Global Governance and Security Centre (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | diplomacy | Topics: Middle East, Ukraine, United States

The Centre argues that the post-1945 global order is severely challenged by rising aggression and great power competition, forcing established and emerging powers to compete over defining future international rules. This instability is evidenced by accusations of Western double standards and a shift toward transactional international relations. To improve global governance and security, the analysis recommends reforming institutions by integrating new rules and elevating the voices of the Global South and smaller middle powers. Ultimately, sustainable global security requires a comprehensive overhaul of international law and norms, addressing issues from digital societies to global health.

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153.

Middle East and North Africa Programme (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East

Chatham House's MENA Programme emphasizes the need for expert analysis on overlooked and underestimated issues within the region. The research methodology is comprehensive, focusing on complex drivers such as geopolitical dynamics, transnational conflict, and the interplay between political economy and state-society relations. This approach moves beyond traditional state-centric models to provide new frameworks for understanding on-the-ground realities. Policymakers must therefore adopt nuanced, multi-dimensional strategies that account for citizen mobilization and evolving governance structures to effectively address regional instability.

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154.

Russia and Eurasia Programme (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Europe, Russia, Ukraine

The Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme provides expert analysis on the complex region encompassing Russia, Ukraine, and former Soviet states, consistently emphasizing the principle of national sovereignty. Its research is heavily informed by the seismic impacts of Russia's war on Ukraine, focusing on the geopolitical trajectories of Russia, the resilience and reconstruction of Ukraine, and the internal political developments of successor states. The program's findings are designed to improve global security and stability, offering actionable insights for policy makers, academic institutions, and the corporate sector regarding regional conflict and geopolitical risk.

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155.

UK in the World Programme (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO, Trade, United States

The 'UK in the World Programme' advocates for a comprehensive and adaptive national strategy, arguing that the UK's global influence must evolve beyond traditional military power. Key reasoning emphasizes the necessity of integrating economic resilience, technological leadership, and diplomatic agility across diverse geopolitical theaters, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. The program suggests that future policy must adopt a 'whole-of-society' approach, leveraging trade justice, advanced technology, and multilateral partnerships to secure economic interests and maintain global stability. Strategically, this implies a shift toward proactive, multi-vector engagement that balances security commitments with commercial opportunities, ensuring the UK remains a pivotal global actor.

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156.

US and North America Programme (Chatham House)

2026-05-24 | americas | Topics: China, Europe, Trade

This Chatham House program provides comprehensive analysis of the evolving global role of the US and North America. It focuses on critical geopolitical shifts, including the US strategy toward China, the renegotiation of global trade policies, and the redefinition of international security alliances. By convening experts and conducting deep research, the program equips policy shapers with actionable insights into America’s changing global posture. The findings are crucial for understanding the long-term implications of US policy for Europe, the UK, and other global powers navigating a period of geopolitical recalibration.

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157.

South Korea As A Rising Defence Exporter Challenges And Opportunities (IISS)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: Indo-Pacific

South Korea is rapidly emerging as a crucial and pivotal defense exporter, significantly meeting Europe's growing military requirements. This analysis examines the underlying drivers and associated risks of Seoul's increased role in the global defense market. The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the strategic implications of this shift, emphasizing the necessity of defining future cooperation frameworks between Europe and South Korea. Policymakers should leverage this growing partnership while mitigating potential geopolitical and supply chain risks.

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158.

Taiwan And Europe Trade Relations And Economic Security (IISS)

2026-05-24 | tech | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine

The report argues that the economic relationship between Europe and Taiwan is rapidly evolving from purely commercial ties to a strategic partnership centered on national security and resilience. Key evidence highlights the growing importance of three sectors—semiconductors, renewable energy, and dual-use technologies (like drones)—as both sides seek to diversify supply chains and achieve strategic goals. While trade is expanding, the growth of Taiwanese investment into Europe remains hampered by regulatory and capital allocation concerns. Strategically, deepening cooperation in these high-tech sectors is crucial for Europe's energy transition and economic security, positioning Taiwan as a vital partner in global technological resilience.

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159.

The Coming Crisis In Russias Political Economy (IISS)

2026-05-24 | economy | Topics: Russia, Ukraine

The paper argues that Russia's war on Ukraine is economically unsustainable, forcing the Kremlin to choose between radical escalation or scaling back its war aims. Key evidence points to severe resource constraints, labor shortages, and the high cost of modern military production, which is straining state finances and depressing civilian sectors. To sustain the conflict, Russia must resort to highly disruptive, command-like measures that curtail market freedoms and civil liberties. These necessary internal controls carry major risks for regime stability, suggesting that the Kremlin will intensify its grip on both the population and the elite.

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160.

Civil Defence In Europe An Initial Assessment (IISS)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Europe, Middle East

The assessment finds that Europe's civil defense infrastructure is highly fragmented, with significant disparities between nations that have established robust, whole-of-society systems and those that remain critically exposed. The core argument is that modern threats no longer respect the boundary between war and peace, necessitating a fundamental shift in preparation methods. Therefore, closing this defensive gap requires more than increased state spending; it demands a comprehensive rethinking of how states, societies, and the private sector collaborate. Policy efforts must focus on building resilient, integrated systems capable of managing complex, non-traditional threats.

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161.

Advancing European Military Capacity In Space (IISS)

2026-05-24 | europe | Topics: Europe, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

While European nations are making significant investments in military space assets to enhance resilience against Russian threats, the report finds that current efforts are strategically fragmented and insufficient to achieve true operational independence by 2030. Critical dependencies remain, particularly in high-end capabilities like persistent ISR, space-based early warning, and SSA, which are currently reliant on the United States. Achieving genuine autonomy requires not only massive, sustained funding but also developing integrated ground segments, command-and-control systems, and a coherent, coordinated strategy across all member states. Policy must therefore shift from merely aggregating national systems to building a resilient, integrated European space enterprise capable of sustaining high-tempo operations.

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162.

Simulating Southeast Asias Nuclear Security Crisis Responses (IISS)

2026-05-24 | defense | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, United States

The simulation revealed that while the Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) serves as a critical diplomatic baseline, ASEAN member states possess limited collective capacity to manage a major nuclear-security crisis involving great power competition. Key evidence showed that although states utilized mechanisms like ADMM-Plus, the regional grouping could not bridge the strategic gap between China and the AUKUS partnership. Therefore, policy efforts must prioritize strengthening internal, domestic crisis literacy and elevating the SEANWFZ Treaty's role, as internal coordination is as vital as external diplomatic mediation.

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163.

Building Blocks Enhancing Southeast Asias Crisis Response Architecture (IISS)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, United States

The paper argues that Southeast Asia lacks systematic crisis planning for a potential US-China conflict over Taiwan, and existing ASEAN mechanisms are insufficient due to the collective-action problem. To address this, it proposes a 'building blocks' approach to enhance regional crisis-response architecture. This framework requires strengthening preparedness at three levels: improving domestic state capacity, leveraging bilateral relations with the US, China, and Taiwan for preliminary planning, and enhancing specific ASEAN mechanisms or forming minilateral arrangements. The key implication is that effective regional security architecture must be decentralized and multi-layered, moving beyond reliance on large, overarching regional bodies.

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164.

Contingent Capabilities Southeast Asias Emerging Anti Access Environment (IISS)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Taiwan

Maritime Southeast Asian states are developing Anti-access/Area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, driven by modernization goals and concerns over potential great power conflicts. However, the paper finds that these efforts are rudimentary and lack systematic planning, revealing a significant disconnect between high-level strategic debate and practical doctrinal development. This fragmentation is constrained by diverse national priorities and historical legacies, meaning no single state possesses the full assets required for a robust A2/AD strategy. Consequently, the uneven development of these capabilities will significantly impact the region's response to future contingencies and complicate efforts toward regional security inter-operability.

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165.

Infrastructure Of Insecurity Deterring Maritime Incidents In The Malacca Straits (IISS)

2026-05-24 | china_indopacific | Topics: Nuclear

The IISS report argues that persistent maritime crime in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore (SOMS) is primarily driven by geographical opportunity and offender adaptation, rather than a failure of overall security infrastructure. Analysis shows that crime is highly clustered near specific choke points and security posts, with deterrent effects diminishing rapidly over short distances. Consequently, the paper advises that managing maritime crime requires a shift from attempting elimination to sophisticated risk management. Policy efforts must focus on improving operational flexibility, reducing blind spots, and enhancing local enforcement coordination to mitigate persistent hotspots.

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