The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Revisiting the Relationship Between Economic and Sea Power
English Summary
The US faces a critical 'maritime crisis' because the decline of its commercial and industrial base has severely weakened its capacity to project sea power, particularly relative to China's massive shipbuilding dominance. To counter this strategic risk, the publication argues that the US must adopt a modern, competitive industrial policy—a 'Mahanian moment'—that treats maritime power as an integrated system. Policy recommendations center on implementing performance-gated funding, making the Strategic Commercial Fleet contestable, and using allied partnerships to stimulate demand and lower costs. This approach aims to transform state-led industrial strategy into a market mechanism that rebuilds the domestic maritime industrial base and ensures reliable global supply lines.
中文摘要
美國正面臨一場關鍵的「海權危機」，因為其商業和工業基礎的衰退，嚴重削弱了其投射海權的能力，尤其是在與中國龐大的造船業主導地位相比之下。為應對此一戰略風險，本文提出，美國必須採取一套現代化、具競爭力的產業政策——一個「馬漢式轉捩點」——將海權視為一個整合系統。政策建議的核心包括實施績效掛鉤的資金撥付、使戰略商船隊的競爭化，並利用盟友夥伴關係來刺激需求和降低成本。此一方法旨在將國家主導的產業戰略轉化為市場機制，從而重建國內的海事工業基礎，並確保可靠的全球供應鏈。
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